Two squads, picked before every deadline and graded after: one by a 50,000-run simulation, one by the crowd's template. Every number on this page is a projection you can check next week.
| Model XI | Consensus XI | Duel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GW1graded | 44proj 65.9 | 53proj 60.7 | 0–1 |
Official points once a gameweek is graded; the live row shows the frozen projection and points so far. Full ledger →
The engine's own 15 — a 3-5-2 projecting 65.92 points with the captain doubled, picked on six-gameweek horizon value, not one-week form.
17.70 captain EV, 19.70 ceiling — the best armband in the model.
No data available.
The recorded comparator squad — Haaland captains, B.Fernandes is vice.
A legal 15 for 98.0m, with an XI projecting 59.2 points.
ARS project 0.57 expected clean sheets against COV (H).
5.32 expected points, with 1.78 of it from clean sheets alone.
0.93 points per million at 5.5.
He clears the 12-action threshold in 60% of simulations.
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Method. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.