Calafiori is the best value in gameweek 1
0.93 points per million at 5.5.
Calafiori returns 0.93 points per million — 5.12 expected points at 5.5.
The best pick in each price bracket — Budget: Shaw (0.88 xPts/£, £4.5m); Mid: Calafiori (0.93 xPts/£, £5.5m); Premium: B.Fernandes (0.74 xPts/£, £12.0m).
The data
| # | Player | Pts/m | xPts | Price | Owned % | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Calafiori ARSMid | 0.93 | 5.12 | 5.5 | 13.8% | 13.88 |
| 2 | Shaw MUNBudget | 0.88 | 3.98 | 4.5 | 23.3% | 7.99 |
| 3 | Ndiaye EVEMid | 0.86 | 5.13 | 6.0 | 20.0% | 15.04 |
| 4 | N.Williams NFOBudget | 0.82 | 4.10 | 5.0 | 13.3% | 10.80 |
| 5 | Diop IPSBudget | 0.81 | 3.23 | 4.0 | 20.8% | 10.28 |
| 6 | E.Le Fée SUNMidDifferential | 0.80 | 4.79 | 6.0 | 9.9% | 13.02 |
| 7 | Mosquera ARSMid | 0.79 | 4.36 | 5.5 | 17.3% | 9.36 |
| 8 | Tarkowski EVEMidDifferential | 0.78 | 4.67 | 6.0 | 9.9% | 11.16 |
| 9 | Raya ARSMid | 0.77 | 4.63 | 6.0 | 30.2% | 8.17 |
| 10 | Verbruggen BHABudget | 0.74 | 3.34 | 4.5 | 16.8% | 8.04 |
| 11 | B.Fernandes MUNPremium | 0.74 | 8.85 | 12.0 | 48.7% | 19.70 |
| 12 | Thiago BREMid | 0.74 | 5.89 | 8.0 | 16.0% | 14.16 |
| 13 | Welbeck BHAMidDifferential | 0.73 | 4.38 | 6.0 | 2.9% | 13.52 |
| 14 | Van Hecke TOTBudgetDifferential | 0.73 | 3.63 | 5.0 | 8.2% | 10.17 |
| 15 | Senesi TOTMid | 0.72 | 4.35 | 6.0 | 11.3% | 10.55 |
| 16 | Hume SUNBudgetDifferential | 0.72 | 3.24 | 4.5 | 1.4% | 9.10 |
| 17 | Dalot MUNBudgetDifferential | 0.70 | 3.53 | 5.0 | 3.2% | 9.65 |
| 18 | Roefs SUNBudgetDifferential | 0.70 | 3.50 | 5.0 | 5.7% | 8.73 |
| 19 | Lammens MUNBudget | 0.69 | 3.46 | 5.0 | 19.9% | 7.64 |
| 20 | Dubravka TOTBudget | 0.69 | 2.74 | 4.0 | 24.8% | 6.86 |
Bottom line
By tier: budget — Shaw, mid — Calafiori, premium — B.Fernandes.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Ceiling = the average of a player's best 15% of our 50,000 simulations — the score when his best realistic games happen, not a fantasy cap. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw1/efficiency.json.