Two squads, picked before every deadline and graded after: one by a 50,000-run simulation, one by the crowd's template. Every number on this page is a projection you can check next week.
| Model XI | Consensus XI | Duel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GW1 | 44proj 65.9 | 53proj 60.7 | 0–1 |
| GW2graded | 93proj 56.0 | 84proj 53.0 | 1–1 |
Official points once a gameweek is graded; the live row shows the frozen projection and points so far. Full ledger →
The engine's own 15 — a 3-4-3 projecting 55.96 points with the captain doubled, picked on six-gameweek horizon value, not one-week form.
14.51 captain EV, 18.90 ceiling — the best armband in the model.
Every projection on this site is the average of tens of thousands of simulated gameweeks. This is the shape behind the average: B.Fernandes blanks in 39% of them and scores double figures in 31%.
The recorded comparator squad — Haaland captains, João Pedro is vice.
A legal 15 for 98.7m, with an XI projecting 55.7 points.
ARS project 0.42 expected clean sheets against AVL (A).
6.03 expected points, with 1.20 of it from clean sheets alone.
1.21 points per million at 5.0.
He clears the 10-action threshold in 74% of simulations.
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Method. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.