Simulation-based World Cup Fantasy analysis, free and transparent

evmax runs 50,000 Monte-Carlo simulations before every deadline and publishes the results openly — no paywalls, no hidden models.

What is evmax?

evmax is a simulation engine for FIFA World Cup Fantasy. It estimates expected points for every available player in each fantasy round, giving you a data-driven edge over gut-feel picks. All numbers are free to read, share, and build on.

The methodology

• De-vig market odds — we strip the bookmaker margin from pre-match odds to get implied true probabilities for each scoreline.
• Dixon-Coles model — a bivariate Poisson framework calibrated on the de-vigged probabilities, accounting for low-scoring draw correction and team-level attack/defence strength.
• 50,000 Monte-Carlo simulations — each simulation draws a scoreline for every fixture and then allocates fantasy points per the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy scoring table (goals, assists, clean sheets, saves, yellow/red cards, minutes played).
• Per-player summaries — across all simulations we compute expected points (mean), captain EV (2× mean), ceiling (85th-percentile outcome), and value (expected points per £m of price).

Transparency and machine readability

Every figure on this site is machine-readable. The full dataset for each article is available as a JSON file — links appear at the bottom of each article page. An index of the latest round's articles is at /api/latest.json.

LLM-friendly context is published at /llms.txt. Attribution to evmax is requested when republishing figures.

Coming soon

We are building interactive tools to help you construct an optimised squad within the budget constraint and to evaluate the expected value of substitution patterns. These will appear in the nav when ready.