B.Fernandes is the gameweek 2 captain
14.51 captain EV, 18.90 ceiling — the best armband in the model.
B.Fernandes (MUN) projects 14.51 captained, off 7.25 expected points, with a ceiling of 18.90 — the average of his best 15% of simulations.
Haaland is the alternative at 13.16. The vice-captain takes over automatically if the captain plays no minutes in the gameweek, regardless of kickoff order.
The data
| # | Player | Captain EV | xPts | Ceiling | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | B.Fernandes MUN | 14.51 | 7.25 | 18.90 | 12.0 | 48.9% |
| 2 | Haaland MCI | 13.16 | 6.58 | 16.58 | 15.5 | 68.1% |
| 3 | Gakpo LIVDifferential | 12.09 | 6.05 | 14.77 | 7.0 | 5.6% |
| 4 | Dalot MUNDifferential | 12.06 | 6.03 | 12.73 | 5.0 | 2.5% |
| 5 | Szoboszlai LIV | 11.41 | 5.70 | 14.87 | 7.0 | 42.9% |
| 6 | Saka ARS | 10.81 | 5.41 | 15.71 | 9.5 | 10.4% |
| 7 | Virgil LIV | 9.93 | 4.97 | 10.80 | 6.5 | 19.6% |
| 8 | Neto CHEDifferential | 9.93 | 4.97 | 11.51 | 6.5 | 1.3% |
| 9 | Mbeumo MUN | 9.69 | 4.84 | 14.10 | 8.0 | 36.3% |
| 10 | Isak LIV | 9.53 | 4.76 | 13.57 | 9.0 | 16.6% |
| 11 | M.Sangaré BREDifferential | 9.48 | 4.74 | 10.79 | 5.6 | 7.5% |
| 12 | Cole Palmer CHE | 9.04 | 4.52 | 13.81 | 9.5 | 14.4% |
| 13 | Ndiaye EVE | 8.98 | 4.49 | 13.20 | 6.0 | 16.0% |
| 14 | Guéhi MCI | 8.80 | 4.40 | 11.01 | 6.0 | 19.1% |
| 15 | Tavernier BOUDifferential | 8.80 | 4.40 | 13.87 | 6.0 | 2.2% |
| 16 | Evanilson BOUDifferential | 8.78 | 4.39 | 12.31 | 6.0 | 2.8% |
| 17 | Garner EVEDifferential | 8.76 | 4.38 | 9.08 | 6.0 | 0.1% |
| 18 | Calafiori ARS | 8.73 | 4.36 | 11.39 | 5.6 | 41.4% |
| 19 | De Cuyper BHADifferential | 8.40 | 4.20 | 12.60 | 4.6 | 6.8% |
| 20 | Thiago BRE | 8.40 | 4.20 | 11.63 | 8.0 | 16.8% |
Bottom line
Captain B.Fernandes — 14.51 is the highest doubled projection on the board.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Ceiling = the average of a player's best 15% of our 50,000 simulations — the score when his best realistic games happen, not a fantasy cap. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw2/captains.json.