Defenders · Gameweek 2

Dalot leads the gameweek 2 defenders

6.03 expected points, with 1.20 of it from clean sheets alone.

eBy the evmax model · 28 August 2026

Dalot (MUN) projects 6.03: 1.20 from clean sheets, 1.44 from defensive contribution and 2.37 from bonus. Where a defender's points come from matters as much as the total — a clean-sheet projection lives or dies on one fixture, while defensive contribution pays regardless of the scoreline.

Dalot6.03 → 12.73Virgil4.97 → 10.80Guéhi4.40 → 11.01Calafiori4.36 → 11.39Cuyper4.20 → 12.60Thiaw4.13 → 10.42Lacroix3.85 → 8.74Raya3.68 → 7.29Kayode3.58 → 9.76Truffert3.57 → 8.41solid = xPts · faint = ceiling upside
Top 10 by xPts. Green = top pick · red = under 10% owned. Full list in the table below. Solid bar = xPts, faint bar = ceiling. Ceiling = the average of a player's best 15% of our 50,000 simulations — the score when his best realistic games happen, not a fantasy cap.

The data

#PlayerxPtsCS ptsDefCon ptsBonusPrice
1Dalot MUNDifferential6.031.201.442.375.0
2Virgil LIV4.971.421.120.066.5
3Guéhi MCI4.401.210.011.166.0
4Calafiori ARS4.361.410.060.685.6
5De Cuyper BHADifferential4.200.590.020.874.6
6Thiaw NEWDifferential4.130.661.480.035.0
7Lacroix CHEDifferential3.851.071.190.036.0
8Raya ARS3.681.570.000.196.0
9Kayode BREDifferential3.580.930.031.044.6
10Truffert BOUDifferential3.571.220.260.005.5
11Van Hecke TOTDifferential3.550.890.630.025.0
12Mosquera ARSDifferential3.531.520.120.185.5
13Shaw MUN3.501.570.010.064.5
14Maguire MUN3.451.450.010.155.0
15O'Reilly MCI3.361.070.000.066.5
16Kelleher BREDifferential3.360.940.000.575.0
17Andersen FULDifferential3.230.830.750.015.0
18Petrović BOUDifferential3.191.220.000.004.5
19Hume SUNDifferential3.191.010.020.274.5
20Richards CRYDifferential3.170.461.450.085.0

Bottom line

Dalot at 5.0 is the defensive pick of the gameweek.

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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw2/defenders.json.