Gabriel leads the gameweek 1 defenders
5.32 expected points, with 1.78 of it from clean sheets alone.
Gabriel (ARS) projects 5.32: 1.78 from clean sheets, 0.55 from defensive contribution and 0.97 from bonus. Where a defender's points come from matters as much as the total — a clean-sheet projection lives or dies on one fixture, while defensive contribution pays regardless of the scoreline.
The data
| # | Player | xPts | CS pts | DefCon pts | Bonus | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriel ARS | 5.32 | 1.78 | 0.55 | 0.97 | 8.0 |
| 2 | Calafiori ARS | 5.12 | 1.78 | 0.06 | 0.53 | 5.5 |
| 3 | Tarkowski EVEDifferential | 4.67 | 1.21 | 0.91 | 0.37 | 6.0 |
| 4 | Raya ARS | 4.63 | 2.20 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 6.0 |
| 5 | Mosquera ARS | 4.36 | 1.91 | 0.49 | 0.22 | 5.5 |
| 6 | Senesi TOT | 4.35 | 0.85 | 1.17 | 0.23 | 6.0 |
| 7 | Virgil LIV | 4.28 | 0.94 | 0.74 | 0.22 | 6.5 |
| 8 | N.Williams NFO | 4.10 | 1.12 | 0.26 | 0.39 | 5.0 |
| 9 | Shaw MUN | 3.98 | 1.78 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 4.5 |
| 10 | Mukiele SUNDifferential | 3.71 | 0.93 | 0.51 | 0.44 | 5.5 |
| 11 | Pickford EVEDifferential | 3.70 | 1.24 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 5.5 |
| 12 | Van Hecke TOTDifferential | 3.63 | 0.83 | 0.61 | 0.22 | 5.0 |
| 13 | Dalot MUNDifferential | 3.53 | 1.38 | 0.14 | 0.20 | 5.0 |
| 14 | Roefs SUNDifferential | 3.50 | 1.02 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 5.0 |
| 15 | Lammens MUN | 3.46 | 1.52 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 5.0 |
| 16 | Lacroix CRY | 3.38 | 0.82 | 0.96 | 0.15 | 6.0 |
| 17 | Keane EVEDifferential | 3.36 | 0.94 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 5.0 |
| 18 | Alderete SUNDifferential | 3.34 | 0.93 | 0.72 | 0.14 | 5.0 |
| 19 | Verbruggen BHA | 3.34 | 1.02 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 4.5 |
| 20 | Milenković NFODifferential | 3.30 | 1.15 | 0.52 | 0.04 | 5.5 |
Bottom line
Gabriel at 8.0 is the defensive pick of the gameweek.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw1/defenders.json.