The DefCon board: Anderson is the quiet two-pointer
A 59.8% chance of banking the defensive-contribution bonus makes the City midfielder this week's most reliable hidden floor.
Defensive contribution is the newest points category most managers still ignore: two points for a defender reaching ten combined clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles, or a midfielder reaching twelve once recoveries are added. It sounds marginal. Over a season it is a starter's appearance points all over again — and it is projectable.
Anderson leads the board: 59.8% probability of crossing the midfield threshold against Bournemouth, worth a flat two points when it lands, inside a 3.94-point overall projection at £6.5m and just 12.0% ownership. Senesi (58.4%) is the defender version — his volume is so reliable that the bonus functions as a floor, not a lottery.
Tarkowski is the dual-threat: a 45.7% defensive-contribution probability stacked on top of Everton's home clean-sheet odds.
Lacroix (48.2% at Everton) and the deep cuts — Ampadu at 38.6%, Wieffer at 38.3%, both under 2% owned — fill out the board for anyone hunting a floor in the £5.0-5.5m bracket. None of these players will win you a gameweek. All of them stop a gameweek from losing you.
Bottom line: Anderson (59.8%) and Senesi (58.4%) are the week's most bankable defensive-contribution plays — floor picks the ownership numbers say the crowd has not priced yet.
The data
| # | Player | P(DefCon) | DefCon pts | xPts | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anderson MCI | 60% | 1.20 | 3.94 | 6.5 | 12.0% |
| 2 | Senesi TOT | 58% | 1.17 | 4.35 | 6.0 | 11.3% |
| 3 | Lacroix CRY | 48% | 0.96 | 3.38 | 6.0 | 11.8% |
| 4 | Tarkowski EVEDifferential | 46% | 0.91 | 4.67 | 6.0 | 9.9% |
| 5 | Ampadu LEEDifferential | 39% | 0.77 | 2.87 | 5.5 | 1.3% |
| 6 | Wieffer BHADifferential | 38% | 0.77 | 2.87 | 5.0 | 0.3% |
| 7 | Keane EVEDifferential | 38% | 0.75 | 3.36 | 5.0 | 1.5% |
| 8 | Virgil LIV | 37% | 0.74 | 4.28 | 6.5 | 15.8% |
| 9 | Alderete SUNDifferential | 36% | 0.72 | 3.34 | 5.0 | 1.2% |
| 10 | Richards CRYDifferential | 36% | 0.72 | 2.92 | 5.0 | 0.8% |
| 11 | Scott BOUDifferential | 35% | 0.70 | 3.07 | 6.0 | 1.6% |
| 12 | Ballard SUNDifferential | 35% | 0.70 | 3.04 | 5.0 | 2.9% |
| 13 | Collins BREDifferential | 35% | 0.70 | 3.06 | 5.5 | 2.0% |
| 14 | Hill BOUDifferential | 33% | 0.65 | 1.63 | 5.5 | 1.4% |
| 15 | Caicedo CHEDifferential | 32% | 0.65 | 2.67 | 5.5 | 3.8% |
| 16 | Van Hecke TOTDifferential | 30% | 0.61 | 3.63 | 5.0 | 8.2% |
| 17 | Struijk BHADifferential | 30% | 0.60 | 3.21 | 5.0 | 0.5% |
| 18 | Xhaka SUNDifferential | 29% | 0.59 | 3.36 | 5.5 | 6.3% |
| 19 | Gomes AVLDifferential | 29% | 0.58 | 2.11 | 5.5 | 0.3% |
| 20 | Yarmoliuk BREDifferential | 28% | 0.57 | 2.27 | 5.0 | 1.5% |
Bottom line
Anderson (59.8%) and Senesi (58.4%) are the week's most bankable defensive-contribution plays — floor picks the ownership numbers say the crowd has not priced yet.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw1/defcon.json.