Anderson is the gameweek 1 DefCon banker
He clears the 12-action threshold in 60% of simulations.
Anderson (MCI) records at least 12 defensive actions in 60% of our simulations, worth 1.20 on its own. Defensive contribution is a threshold, not a rate: a player either clears the count in a given match or earns nothing, which is why we quote the hit rate rather than an average.
Senesi is next at 58% against a 10-action threshold.
The data
| # | Player | P(DefCon) | DefCon pts | xPts | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anderson MCI | 60% | 1.20 | 3.94 | 6.5 | 12.0% |
| 2 | Senesi TOT | 58% | 1.17 | 4.35 | 6.0 | 11.3% |
| 3 | Lacroix CRY | 48% | 0.96 | 3.38 | 6.0 | 11.8% |
| 4 | Tarkowski EVEDifferential | 46% | 0.91 | 4.67 | 6.0 | 9.9% |
| 5 | Ampadu LEEDifferential | 39% | 0.77 | 2.87 | 5.5 | 1.3% |
| 6 | Wieffer BHADifferential | 38% | 0.77 | 2.87 | 5.0 | 0.3% |
| 7 | Keane EVEDifferential | 38% | 0.75 | 3.36 | 5.0 | 1.5% |
| 8 | Virgil LIV | 37% | 0.74 | 4.28 | 6.5 | 15.8% |
| 9 | Alderete SUNDifferential | 36% | 0.72 | 3.34 | 5.0 | 1.2% |
| 10 | Richards CRYDifferential | 36% | 0.72 | 2.92 | 5.0 | 0.8% |
| 11 | Scott BOUDifferential | 35% | 0.70 | 3.07 | 6.0 | 1.6% |
| 12 | Ballard SUNDifferential | 35% | 0.70 | 3.04 | 5.0 | 2.9% |
| 13 | Collins BREDifferential | 35% | 0.70 | 3.06 | 5.5 | 2.0% |
| 14 | Hill BOUDifferential | 33% | 0.65 | 1.63 | 5.5 | 1.4% |
| 15 | Caicedo CHEDifferential | 32% | 0.65 | 2.67 | 5.5 | 3.8% |
| 16 | Van Hecke TOTDifferential | 30% | 0.61 | 3.63 | 5.0 | 8.2% |
| 17 | Struijk BHADifferential | 30% | 0.60 | 3.21 | 5.0 | 0.5% |
| 18 | Xhaka SUNDifferential | 29% | 0.59 | 3.36 | 5.5 | 6.3% |
| 19 | Gomes AVLDifferential | 29% | 0.58 | 2.11 | 5.5 | 0.3% |
| 20 | Yarmoliuk BREDifferential | 28% | 0.57 | 2.27 | 5.0 | 1.5% |
Bottom line
Anderson is the most reliable route to the 2-point defensive bonus — 60% of simulations.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw1/defcon.json.