Clean sheets start at the Emirates
Arsenal's 56.8% shutout probability towers over the week — no other defence clears 50%.
The market prices one defensive banker this week: Arsenal, at home to newly promoted Coventry, with a 56.8% clean-sheet probability and 2.56 expected goals scored against 0.56 conceded. That combination — a shutout better than a coin flip plus genuine goal threat from set pieces — is why Arsenal defenders dominate every defensive list we publish this week.
Manchester United away at Hull are the surprising second: 45.4% to keep Hull out entirely, with 2.17 expected goals at the other end. Manchester City (31.9% against Bournemouth) rank only third — the market expects City to score 2.35 but concedes Bournemouth real scoring chances at 1.14 expected goals, which caps the shutout odds. Everton (31.3% at home to Palace) are the budget-defence angle.
Every row this week is priced from live market data — no model fallbacks, no guesswork flags.
At the bottom, COV (7.9%) and BOU (9.6%) are the defences to avoid entirely — and, read in reverse, the fixtures whose opposing attackers get a quiet boost.
Looking past this week, the strongest opening-six runs belong to Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd and Liverpool; Ipswich, Bournemouth, Coventry and Hull carry the worst. Gameweek 1 is priced from live market odds; the following weeks use fixture-difficulty priors calibrated against them, and each week's real prices replace the prior as it arrives.
Bottom line: Arsenal at 56.8% are the week's only true clean-sheet banker; pay for their defenders or don't pay for defence at all.
The data
| # | Player | Clean sheets | xGF | xGA | Fixtures | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARS COV (H)Blowout | 0.57 | 2.56 | 0.56 | 1 | market |
| 2 | MUN HUL (A) | 0.45 | 2.17 | 0.79 | 1 | market |
| 3 | MCI BOU (H)Blowout | 0.32 | 2.35 | 1.14 | 1 | market |
| 4 | EVE CRY (H) | 0.31 | 1.48 | 1.16 | 1 | market |
| 5 | NFO LEE (H) | 0.30 | 1.45 | 1.21 | 1 | market |
| 6 | CHE FUL (A)Blowout | 0.29 | 1.77 | 1.25 | 1 | market |
| 7 | SUN IPS (A) | 0.28 | 1.33 | 1.28 | 1 | market |
| 8 | IPS SUN (H) | 0.27 | 1.28 | 1.33 | 1 | market |
| 9 | BHA AVL (H)Blowout | 0.26 | 1.64 | 1.35 | 1 | market |
| 10 | BRE TOT (H) | 0.24 | 1.51 | 1.43 | 1 | market |
| 11 | LEE NFO (A) | 0.24 | 1.21 | 1.45 | 1 | market |
| 12 | LIV NEW (A)Blowout | 0.24 | 1.95 | 1.44 | 1 | market |
| 13 | CRY EVE (A) | 0.23 | 1.16 | 1.48 | 1 | market |
| 14 | TOT BRE (A) | 0.22 | 1.43 | 1.51 | 1 | market |
| 15 | AVL BHA (A)Blowout | 0.19 | 1.35 | 1.64 | 1 | market |
| 16 | FUL CHE (H)Blowout | 0.17 | 1.25 | 1.77 | 1 | market |
| 17 | NEW LIV (H)Blowout | 0.14 | 1.44 | 1.95 | 1 | market |
| 18 | HUL MUN (H) | 0.11 | 0.79 | 2.17 | 1 | market |
| 19 | BOU MCI (A)Blowout | 0.10 | 1.14 | 2.35 | 1 | market |
| 20 | COV ARS (A)Blowout | 0.08 | 0.56 | 2.56 | 1 | market |
Bottom line
Arsenal at 56.8% are the week's only true clean-sheet banker; pay for their defenders or don't pay for defence at all.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw1/ticker.json.