The gameweek 1 draft squad: 3-5-2
A legal 15 for 98.0m, with an XI projecting 59.2 points.
The model's draft squad lines up 3-5-2 and costs 98.0m of the 100.0m budget, leaving 2.0m in the bank. The starting XI projects 59.2 points.
The bench is deliberately cheap — four enablers that make the 15 legal so the spending sits in the XI. No club contributes more than three players, which is the squad rule that most often forces a compromise on the premium picks.
The data
| # | Player | xPts | Price | Captain EV | Ceiling | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | B.Fernandes MUN | 8.85 | 12.0 | 17.70 | 19.70 | 48.7% |
| 2 | Thiago BRE | 5.89 | 8.0 | 11.78 | 14.16 | 16.0% |
| 3 | Gabriel ARS | 5.32 | 8.0 | 10.63 | 12.92 | 25.4% |
| 4 | Ndiaye EVE | 5.13 | 6.0 | 10.27 | 15.04 | 20.0% |
| 5 | Calafiori ARS | 5.12 | 5.5 | 10.24 | 13.88 | 13.8% |
| 6 | Mbeumo MUN | 5.00 | 8.0 | 10.00 | 14.83 | 13.6% |
| 7 | Watkins AVL | 4.94 | 8.0 | 9.88 | 13.15 | 12.2% |
| 8 | Gibbs-White NFO | 4.83 | 8.0 | 9.67 | 13.53 | 12.3% |
| 9 | E.Le Fée SUNDifferential | 4.79 | 6.0 | 9.59 | 13.02 | 9.9% |
| 10 | Tarkowski EVEDifferential | 4.67 | 6.0 | 9.33 | 11.16 | 9.9% |
| 11 | Raya ARS | 4.63 | 6.0 | 9.25 | 8.17 | 30.2% |
| 12 | Diop IPSBench | 3.23 | 4.0 | 6.45 | 10.28 | 20.8% |
| 13 | Dubravka TOTBench | 2.74 | 4.0 | 5.49 | 6.86 | 24.8% |
| 14 | Walle Egeli IPSDifferentialBench | 0.99 | 4.5 | 1.99 | 5.66 | 2.4% |
| 15 | Amass MUNDifferentialBench | 0.83 | 4.0 | 1.66 | 4.97 | 0.2% |
Bottom line
Build around this 3-5-2: 59.2 projected points for 98.0m.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Ceiling = the average of a player's best 15% of our 50,000 simulations — the score when his best realistic games happen, not a fantasy cap. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw1/wildcard.json.