B.Fernandes is the gameweek 1 captain
17.70 captain EV, 19.70 ceiling — the best armband in the model.
B.Fernandes (MUN) projects 17.70 captained, off 8.85 expected points, with a ceiling of 19.70 — the average of his best 15% of simulations.
Haaland is the alternative at 15.61. The vice-captain takes over automatically if the captain plays no minutes in the gameweek, regardless of kickoff order.
The data
| # | Player | Captain EV | xPts | Ceiling | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | B.Fernandes MUN | 17.70 | 8.85 | 19.70 | 12.0 | 48.7% |
| 2 | Haaland MCI | 15.61 | 7.80 | 17.31 | 15.5 | 75.2% |
| 3 | Saka ARS | 12.26 | 6.13 | 18.87 | 9.5 | 10.7% |
| 4 | Thiago BRE | 11.78 | 5.89 | 14.16 | 8.0 | 16.0% |
| 5 | Gabriel ARS | 10.63 | 5.32 | 12.92 | 8.0 | 25.4% |
| 6 | Ndiaye EVE | 10.27 | 5.13 | 15.04 | 6.0 | 20.0% |
| 7 | Calafiori ARS | 10.24 | 5.12 | 13.88 | 5.5 | 13.8% |
| 8 | Mbeumo MUN | 10.00 | 5.00 | 14.83 | 8.0 | 13.6% |
| 9 | Watkins AVL | 9.88 | 4.94 | 13.15 | 8.0 | 12.2% |
| 10 | Gibbs-White NFO | 9.67 | 4.83 | 13.53 | 8.0 | 12.3% |
| 11 | E.Le Fée SUNDifferential | 9.59 | 4.79 | 13.02 | 6.0 | 9.9% |
| 12 | Gakpo LIVDifferential | 9.59 | 4.79 | 14.52 | 7.0 | 3.3% |
| 13 | Szoboszlai LIV | 9.43 | 4.71 | 12.49 | 7.0 | 47.3% |
| 14 | Tarkowski EVEDifferential | 9.33 | 4.67 | 11.16 | 6.0 | 9.9% |
| 15 | Raya ARS | 9.25 | 4.63 | 8.17 | 6.0 | 30.2% |
| 16 | Enzo CHEDifferential | 9.20 | 4.60 | 13.03 | 7.0 | 5.1% |
| 17 | Welbeck BHADifferential | 8.77 | 4.38 | 13.52 | 6.0 | 2.9% |
| 18 | Mosquera ARS | 8.72 | 4.36 | 9.36 | 5.5 | 17.3% |
| 19 | Senesi TOT | 8.69 | 4.35 | 10.55 | 6.0 | 11.3% |
| 20 | Wirtz LIV | 8.69 | 4.35 | 14.32 | 7.5 | 10.6% |
Bottom line
Captain B.Fernandes — 17.70 is the highest doubled projection on the board.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Ceiling = the average of a player's best 15% of our 50,000 simulations — the score when his best realistic games happen, not a fantasy cap. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw1/captains.json.