{
  "competition": "fantasy_premier_league",
  "gameweek": 1,
  "article": "captains",
  "title": "Best captain picks — Gameweek 1",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-21T10:24:47.172294+00:00",
  "sims": 50000,
  "methodology": "Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.",
  "entries": [
    {
      "name": "B.Fernandes",
      "team": "MUN",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 8.85,
      "captain_ev": 17.7,
      "ceiling": 19.7,
      "price": 12.0,
      "ownership_pct": 48.7,
      "value": 0.737,
      "bonus": 2.28,
      "defcon": 0.19,
      "p_defcon": 0.096,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-22T11:30:00+00:00",
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 1,
      "kickoff_order": 2
    },
    {
      "name": "Haaland",
      "team": "MCI",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 7.8,
      "captain_ev": 15.61,
      "ceiling": 17.31,
      "price": 15.5,
      "ownership_pct": 75.2,
      "value": 0.503,
      "bonus": 2.04,
      "defcon": 0.0,
      "p_defcon": 0.0,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-23T13:00:00+00:00",
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 2,
      "kickoff_order": 5
    },
    {
      "name": "Saka",
      "team": "ARS",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 6.13,
      "captain_ev": 12.26,
      "ceiling": 18.87,
      "price": 9.5,
      "ownership_pct": 10.7,
      "value": 0.645,
      "bonus": 1.63,
      "defcon": 0.08,
      "p_defcon": 0.041,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-21T19:00:00+00:00",
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 3,
      "kickoff_order": 1
    },
    {
      "name": "Thiago",
      "team": "BRE",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 5.89,
      "captain_ev": 11.78,
      "ceiling": 14.16,
      "price": 8.0,
      "ownership_pct": 16.0,
      "value": 0.736,
      "bonus": 1.32,
      "defcon": 0.02,
      "p_defcon": 0.011,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-22T16:30:00+00:00",
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 4,
      "kickoff_order": 4
    },
    {
      "name": "Gabriel",
      "team": "ARS",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 5.32,
      "captain_ev": 10.63,
      "ceiling": 12.92,
      "price": 8.0,
      "ownership_pct": 25.4,
      "value": 0.665,
      "bonus": 0.97,
      "defcon": 0.55,
      "p_defcon": 0.277,
      "cs_points": 1.78,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-21T19:00:00+00:00",
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 5,
      "kickoff_order": 1
    },
    {
      "name": "Ndiaye",
      "team": "EVE",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 5.13,
      "captain_ev": 10.27,
      "ceiling": 15.04,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 20.0,
      "value": 0.856,
      "bonus": 0.88,
      "defcon": 0.25,
      "p_defcon": 0.125,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-22T14:00:00+00:00",
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 6,
      "kickoff_order": 3
    },
    {
      "name": "Calafiori",
      "team": "ARS",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 5.12,
      "captain_ev": 10.24,
      "ceiling": 13.88,
      "price": 5.5,
      "ownership_pct": 13.8,
      "value": 0.931,
      "bonus": 0.53,
      "defcon": 0.06,
      "p_defcon": 0.028,
      "cs_points": 1.78,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-21T19:00:00+00:00",
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 7,
      "kickoff_order": 1
    },
    {
      "name": "Mbeumo",
      "team": "MUN",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 5.0,
      "captain_ev": 10.0,
      "ceiling": 14.83,
      "price": 8.0,
      "ownership_pct": 13.6,
      "value": 0.625,
      "bonus": 0.91,
      "defcon": 0.01,
      "p_defcon": 0.004,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-22T11:30:00+00:00",
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 8,
      "kickoff_order": 2
    },
    {
      "name": "Watkins",
      "team": "AVL",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 4.94,
      "captain_ev": 9.88,
      "ceiling": 13.15,
      "price": 8.0,
      "ownership_pct": 12.2,
      "value": 0.618,
      "bonus": 1.21,
      "defcon": 0.0,
      "p_defcon": 0.0,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-23T13:00:00+00:00",
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 9,
      "kickoff_order": 5
    },
    {
      "name": "Gibbs-White",
      "team": "NFO",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.83,
      "captain_ev": 9.67,
      "ceiling": 13.53,
      "price": 8.0,
      "ownership_pct": 12.3,
      "value": 0.604,
      "bonus": 0.88,
      "defcon": 0.01,
      "p_defcon": 0.007,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-22T14:00:00+00:00",
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 10,
      "kickoff_order": 3
    },
    {
      "name": "E.Le Fée",
      "team": "SUN",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.79,
      "captain_ev": 9.59,
      "ceiling": 13.02,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 9.9,
      "value": 0.799,
      "bonus": 1.08,
      "defcon": 0.37,
      "p_defcon": 0.184,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-22T14:00:00+00:00",
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 11,
      "kickoff_order": 3
    },
    {
      "name": "Gakpo",
      "team": "LIV",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.79,
      "captain_ev": 9.59,
      "ceiling": 14.52,
      "price": 7.0,
      "ownership_pct": 3.3,
      "value": 0.685,
      "bonus": 0.67,
      "defcon": 0.01,
      "p_defcon": 0.004,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-23T15:30:00+00:00",
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 12,
      "kickoff_order": 6
    },
    {
      "name": "Szoboszlai",
      "team": "LIV",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.71,
      "captain_ev": 9.43,
      "ceiling": 12.49,
      "price": 7.0,
      "ownership_pct": 47.3,
      "value": 0.673,
      "bonus": 0.64,
      "defcon": 0.35,
      "p_defcon": 0.174,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-23T15:30:00+00:00",
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 13,
      "kickoff_order": 6
    },
    {
      "name": "Tarkowski",
      "team": "EVE",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 4.67,
      "captain_ev": 9.33,
      "ceiling": 11.16,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 9.9,
      "value": 0.778,
      "bonus": 0.37,
      "defcon": 0.91,
      "p_defcon": 0.457,
      "cs_points": 1.21,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-22T14:00:00+00:00",
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 14,
      "kickoff_order": 3
    },
    {
      "name": "Raya",
      "team": "ARS",
      "position": "GK",
      "x_points": 4.63,
      "captain_ev": 9.25,
      "ceiling": 8.17,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 30.2,
      "value": 0.771,
      "bonus": 0.39,
      "defcon": 0.0,
      "p_defcon": 0.0,
      "cs_points": 2.2,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-21T19:00:00+00:00",
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 15,
      "kickoff_order": 1
    },
    {
      "name": "Enzo",
      "team": "CHE",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.6,
      "captain_ev": 9.2,
      "ceiling": 13.03,
      "price": 7.0,
      "ownership_pct": 5.1,
      "value": 0.657,
      "bonus": 0.71,
      "defcon": 0.08,
      "p_defcon": 0.042,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-24T19:00:00+00:00",
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 16,
      "kickoff_order": 7
    },
    {
      "name": "Welbeck",
      "team": "BHA",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 4.38,
      "captain_ev": 8.77,
      "ceiling": 13.52,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 2.9,
      "value": 0.731,
      "bonus": 1.39,
      "defcon": 0.0,
      "p_defcon": 0.001,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-23T13:00:00+00:00",
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 17,
      "kickoff_order": 5
    },
    {
      "name": "Mosquera",
      "team": "ARS",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 4.36,
      "captain_ev": 8.72,
      "ceiling": 9.36,
      "price": 5.5,
      "ownership_pct": 17.3,
      "value": 0.793,
      "bonus": 0.22,
      "defcon": 0.49,
      "p_defcon": 0.244,
      "cs_points": 1.91,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-21T19:00:00+00:00",
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 18,
      "kickoff_order": 1
    },
    {
      "name": "Senesi",
      "team": "TOT",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 4.35,
      "captain_ev": 8.69,
      "ceiling": 10.55,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 11.3,
      "value": 0.724,
      "bonus": 0.23,
      "defcon": 1.17,
      "p_defcon": 0.584,
      "cs_points": 0.85,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-22T16:30:00+00:00",
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 19,
      "kickoff_order": 4
    },
    {
      "name": "Wirtz",
      "team": "LIV",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.35,
      "captain_ev": 8.69,
      "ceiling": 14.32,
      "price": 7.5,
      "ownership_pct": 10.6,
      "value": 0.58,
      "bonus": 0.87,
      "defcon": 0.05,
      "p_defcon": 0.024,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-23T15:30:00+00:00",
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 20,
      "kickoff_order": 6
    }
  ],
  "source": "https://evmax.ai",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "license_text": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with attribution to evmax (https://evmax.ai)"
}