Two squads, picked before every deadline and graded after: one by a 50,000-run simulation, one by the crowd's template. Every number on this page is a projection you can check next week.
| Model XI | Consensus XI | Duel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GW1 | 44proj 65.9 | 53proj 60.7 | 0–1 |
| GW2 | 93proj 56.0 | 84proj 53.0 | 1–1 |
| GW3 | 37proj 59.5 | 59proj 53.7 | 1–2 |
| GW4 | 76proj 69.6 | 83proj 53.6 | 1–3 |
| GW5 | 44proj 62.6 | 31proj 52.7 | 2–3 |
| GW6 | 41proj 56.7 | 71proj 48.4 | 2–4 |
| GW7live | 57.3proj | 56.7proj | 2–4 |
Official points once a gameweek is graded; the live row shows the frozen projection and points so far. Full ledger →
The players we actually field, from the squad we publish and grade in public every week.
Who the crowd is piling into, and what our model makes of each move.
Crowd is buying. Model has him tier S, 10th by xPts this week.
Crowd is buying. Model has him tier S, 8th by xPts this week.
Crowd is buying. Model has him tier A, 63rd by xPts this week.
Who is being dumped hardest. Where the model disagrees, it says so.
Crowd is selling. Model still has him tier S, 6th.
Official FPL feed at forecast capture: Thigh injury - Unknown return date (status: i)
Crowd is selling. Model has him tier D, 576th.
Official FPL feed at forecast capture: Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing (status: d)
Model start prior (before lineup constraints): 0.55. The FPL percentage concerns playing. The model start prior is a separate estimate.
Crowd is selling. Model still has him tier A, 106th.
Fixture boxes under the dots: the next opponent, coloured by difficulty — green easy, red hard, dashed grey not priced yet.
Check your player — search all cards → · How we compare to the other models →
Hold the decision until Friday news. Bruno to Saka is our first conditional move; the pitch shows the held website roster before any transfer.
Captain, transfers and chips from 6 public sources, each linked, beside our own squad. The sources lean Haaland; the model captains Thiago.
Haaland projects 8.63 ordinary points, Saka 7.02. Captaincy depends on ownership as well as the player ranking.
Every projection on this site is the average of tens of thousands of simulated gameweeks. This is the shape behind the average: Haaland blanks in 30% of them and scores double figures in 37%.
The recorded comparator squad — Haaland captains, Calvert-Lewin is vice.
A legal 15 for 98.4m, with an XI projecting 64.3 points.
MCI project 0.44 expected clean sheets against IPS (H).
5.37 expected points, with 1.44 of it from clean sheets alone.
1.06 points per million at 6.1.
He clears the 10-action threshold in 52% of simulations.
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Method. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.