Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier A · MidCHE

João Pedro

FWD · £7.8m · Gameweek 7
3.61xPts0.46pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 9
112123.63.63.63.5
GW3 1 points played · GW4 12 points played · GW6 12 points played · GW7 3.6 projected · GW8 3.6 projected · GW9 3.6 projected · GW10 3.5 projected
GW34678910
EVETOTMUNSUN
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank63rdcaptain EV7.23owned69.7%season45 ptspts/£m so far5.77
attack 2.7bonus 0.9= 3.6 xPts
floor 0most likely 2 36%ceiling 9
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 2 (36% of simulations), ceiling 9 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
the consensus squad owns him, we do not
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)3.61
Captain EV7.23
Top 15% of sims, average11.05
Projected pts/£m0.463
Expected bonus (per match)0.89
DefCon points (per match)0.00
P(DefCon threshold)0.000
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.00
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.78
Price£7.8m
Ownership69.7%
xPts rank / ownership rank63 / 2
Season points (minutes)45 (431′)
Realized pts/£m5.77
Model tierA · Mid
Our positionthe consensus squad owns him, we do not

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

Research notes on file: João Pedro. Notes carry sourced minutes/rotation judgement that overrides the raw model.

Currently in the XI of the consensus squad.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/165.json.