Bobby Thomas is the gameweek 7 DefCon banker
He clears the 10-action threshold in 52% of simulations.
Bobby Thomas (COV) records at least 10 defensive actions in 52% of our simulations, worth 1.05 on its own. Defensive contribution is a threshold, not a rate: a player either clears the count in a given match or earns nothing, which is why we quote the hit rate rather than an average.
Tarkowski is next at 47% against a 10-action threshold.
The data
| # | Player | P(DefCon) | DefCon pts | xPts | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bobby Thomas COVDifferential | 52% | 1.05 | 3.08 | 4.0 | 8.8% |
| 2 | Tarkowski EVE | 47% | 0.94 | 3.79 | 6.2 | 18.4% |
| 3 | Muharemović LEEDifferential | 46% | 0.91 | 3.81 | 5.0 | 4.6% |
| 4 | Botman NEWDifferential | 44% | 0.87 | 3.61 | 5.0 | 0.8% |
| 5 | Richards CRYDifferential | 43% | 0.85 | 3.07 | 4.9 | 0.6% |
| 6 | Mukiele SUNDifferential | 42% | 0.85 | 3.87 | 5.4 | 1.8% |
| 7 | Branthwaite EVEDifferential | 41% | 0.82 | 3.24 | 5.5 | 2.6% |
| 8 | Egan HULDifferential | 39% | 0.78 | 2.79 | 4.1 | 7.3% |
| 9 | Silva BOUDifferential | 39% | 0.78 | 4.75 | 5.0 | 0.6% |
| 10 | Hill BOUDifferential | 38% | 0.77 | 4.29 | 5.5 | 0.8% |
| 11 | Murillo NFODifferential | 38% | 0.77 | 2.99 | 5.5 | 2.1% |
| 12 | Janelt BREDifferential | 37% | 0.74 | 3.57 | 5.0 | 2.5% |
| 13 | Ajer BREDifferential | 35% | 0.71 | 3.32 | 4.5 | 3.8% |
| 14 | Vuskovic BHADifferential | 34% | 0.69 | 4.39 | 5.1 | 4.6% |
| 15 | Lacroix CHEDifferential | 34% | 0.67 | 3.16 | 5.9 | 6.5% |
| 16 | Pinnock COVDifferential | 32% | 0.65 | 1.99 | 4.5 | 0.1% |
| 17 | Mainoo MUNDifferential | 32% | 0.64 | 2.39 | 5.5 | 1.5% |
| 18 | Wesley Fofana CHEDifferential | 30% | 0.61 | 2.47 | 5.0 | 0.2% |
| 19 | O'Shea IPSDifferential | 30% | 0.61 | 1.84 | 4.0 | 2.6% |
| 20 | Van Hecke TOTDifferential | 30% | 0.60 | 5.10 | 4.9 | 6.3% |
Bottom line
Bobby Thomas is the most reliable route to the 2-point defensive bonus — 52% of simulations.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/defcon.json.