The Consensus XI: gameweek 7 comparator
The recorded comparator squad — Haaland captains, Calvert-Lewin is vice.
Rebuilt for gameweek 2 as the most-owned legal template: top selected_by_percent per position from the official bootstrap, greedily legalised under budget, quota and club cap; captain = highest-owned premium (>= 10.0m), vice next. This rebuild is the squad's declared Wildcard; the GW1 expert mention-tally method is retired. GW1 is graded as published.
This is the held comparator roster, not a fresh poll of expert teams. Both squads use the same forecast model for expected points and minutes. Their realized score gap combines player selection, captaincy, chips and football variance; it does not isolate information quality.
The 3-4-3 XI projects 48.08 points, 56.71 with the captain doubled.
The data
| # | Player | xPts | Ceiling | Captain EV | Pts/m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raya ARS | 4.18 | 9.08 | 8.36 | 0.69 |
| 2 | Calafiori ARS | 4.61 | 11.49 | 9.21 | 0.78 |
| 3 | O'Reilly MCIDifferential | 2.47 | 9.77 | 4.94 | 0.39 |
| 4 | Szoboszlai LIV | 2.97 | 11.50 | 5.93 | 0.43 |
| 5 | Mbeumo MUN | 4.81 | 12.72 | 9.61 | 0.61 |
| 6 | Rogers CHE | 3.83 | 10.45 | 7.67 | 0.48 |
| 7 | Haaland MCI | 8.63 | 18.55 | 17.26 | 0.55 |
| 8 | João Pedro CHE | 3.61 | 11.05 | 7.23 | 0.46 |
| 9 | Calvert-Lewin LEE | 5.90 | 14.18 | 11.80 | 0.98 |
| 10 | Guéhi MCI | 4.57 | 11.00 | 9.15 | 0.76 |
| 11 | Slater HULDifferential | 2.50 | 6.50 | 5.00 | 0.56 |
| 12 | Kinsky TOTBench | 3.83 | 8.97 | 7.67 | 0.85 |
| 13 | Shaw MUNDifferentialBench | 1.83 | 7.14 | 3.67 | 0.43 |
| 14 | Diop IPSBench | 1.72 | 6.25 | 3.43 | 0.43 |
| 15 | Tzolis ARSDifferentialBench | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bottom line
Comparator: 3-4-3, Haaland (c) — 56.71 projected on our model's numbers.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Ceiling = the average of a player's best 15% of our 50,000 simulations — the score when his best realistic games happen, not a fantasy cap. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/consensus-squad.json.