Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier S · MidLEE

Calvert-Lewin

FWD · £6.0m · Gameweek 7
5.90xPts0.98pts/£m
floor 1 · ceiling 13
10225.95.35.35.4
GW4 10 points played · GW5 2 points played · GW6 2 points played · GW7 5.9 projected · GW8 5.3 projected · GW9 5.3 projected · GW10 5.4 projected
GW45678910
MUNSUNBOUTOT
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank5thcaptain EV11.80owned22.6%season24 ptspts/£m so far4.00
attack 4.6bonus 1.3= 5.9 xPts
floor 1most likely 2 37%ceiling 13
10,000 simulations: floor 1, most likely 2 (37% of simulations), ceiling 13 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we own him, in our XI
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)5.90
Captain EV11.80
Top 15% of sims, average14.18
Projected pts/£m0.983
Expected bonus (per match)1.30
DefCon points (per match)0.00
P(DefCon threshold)0.002
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.00
Start prior (before lineup constraints)1.00
Price£6.0m
Ownership22.6%
xPts rank / ownership rank5 / 13
Season points (minutes)24 (509′)
Realized pts/£m4.00
Model tierS · Mid
Our positionwe own him, in our XI

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

Research notes on file: Calvert-Lewin. Notes carry sourced minutes/rotation judgement that overrides the raw model.

Currently in the XI of our squad and the XI of the consensus squad.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/346.json.