GW7 provisional: Saka leads the transfer shortlist
Hold the decision until Friday news. Bruno to Saka is our first conditional move; the pitch shows the held website roster before any transfer.
A plan, not an account transaction
Only three free transfers are confirmed for the user. The account squad, bank, displayed selling prices and chips are not verified. The table and pitch below show the website's existing fifteen with a provisional best legal XI; no proposed purchase has been applied to those holdings. On that held roster, Thiago is captain by a very small model margin. If Bruno is replaced by Saka, Saka becomes the provisional captain.
Why Saka first
Under the recorded website roster, £0 bank and recorded purchase prices, Bruno to Saka releases £2.3m and adds an estimated 2.23 points in GW7 and 6.67 across five discounted weeks. This is a full-squad comparison, not just a subtraction of two player projections. It also leaves three free transfers next week. The model narrowly prefers selling Palmer, but retaining him is our judgment about fixtures, cash flexibility and uncertainty.
The second and third transfers are conditional
Evanilson to Gonzalo has the larger static model gain if the bench and injury situation permit it. Szoboszlai to Tavernier is the alternative if his return remains unclear. Shaw to De Cuyper is an optional third move after European workload and Friday fitness updates. Using all three transfers is not automatically better: saved-transfer option value is omitted from the model.
How confident are we?
We have more confidence in Saka as the first shortlist move than in the exact three-transfer bundle. The shortlisted portfolios retain positive gains in the tested minutes scenarios, but those scenarios are not calibrated probabilities. We cannot assign a defensible percentage chance that these are the right moves. Actual finances, late injuries, rotation and future transfers can change the ranking.
Read the linked joint transfer plan for the full hold/one/two/three-transfer table, sources and assumptions. Review Friday news before making account transfers. Deadline: 17 October, 10:00 UTC / 11:00 BST.
The data
| # | Player | xPts | Ceiling | Captain EV | Pts/m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raya ARS | 4.18 | 9.08 | 8.36 | 0.69 |
| 2 | Tarkowski EVE | 3.79 | 9.86 | 7.59 | 0.61 |
| 3 | Virgil LIV | 3.67 | 9.87 | 7.34 | 0.56 |
| 4 | B.Fernandes MUN | 5.86 | 14.59 | 11.72 | 0.49 |
| 5 | Gibbs-White NFO | 4.12 | 11.51 | 8.24 | 0.52 |
| 6 | E.Le Fée SUNDifferential | 4.57 | 12.05 | 9.14 | 0.80 |
| 7 | Thiago BREDifferential | 5.95 | 14.35 | 11.90 | 0.76 |
| 8 | Evanilson BOUDifferential | 4.37 | 10.97 | 8.75 | 0.73 |
| 9 | Calvert-Lewin LEE | 5.90 | 14.18 | 11.80 | 0.98 |
| 10 | Cole Palmer CHE | 5.84 | 14.82 | 11.68 | 0.60 |
| 11 | Bobby Thomas COVDifferential | 3.08 | 9.17 | 6.17 | 0.77 |
| 12 | Sánchez CHEDifferentialBench | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 13 | Szoboszlai LIVBench | 2.97 | 11.50 | 5.93 | 0.43 |
| 14 | N.Williams NFODifferentialBench | 2.62 | 8.32 | 5.24 | 0.52 |
| 15 | Shaw MUNDifferentialBench | 1.83 | 7.14 | 3.67 | 0.43 |
Bottom line
Get the next round the moment odds drop
50,000 simulations per matchday — captains, EV and match predictions in your inbox before lock.
Double opt-in. No spam, no tracking. Unsubscribe anytime.
How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Ceiling = the average of a player's best 15% of our 50,000 simulations — the score when his best realistic games happen, not a fantasy cap. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/our-squad.json.