Saka is the gameweek 6 captain
15.93 captain EV, 17.83 ceiling — the best armband in the model.
Saka (ARS) projects 15.93 captained, off 7.96 expected points, with a ceiling of 17.83 — the average of his best 15% of simulations.
B.Fernandes is the alternative at 14.31. The vice-captain takes over automatically if the captain plays no minutes in the gameweek, regardless of kickoff order.
Copy correction recorded 2026-10-10: clarified automatic vice captaincy under the official FPL rules. Frozen projections and capture time are unchanged.
The data
| # | Player | Captain EV | xPts | Ceiling | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saka ARS | 15.93 | 7.96 | 17.83 | 9.6 | 15.4% |
| 2 | B.Fernandes MUN | 14.31 | 7.16 | 17.48 | 11.9 | 38.2% |
| 3 | Haaland MCI | 13.00 | 6.50 | 14.80 | 15.6 | 74.0% |
| 4 | Barry EVEDifferential | 12.04 | 6.02 | 14.23 | 5.7 | 8.6% |
| 5 | Mbeumo MUN | 11.36 | 5.68 | 15.24 | 7.9 | 20.3% |
| 6 | Gabriel ARS | 11.08 | 5.54 | 12.19 | 8.0 | 22.7% |
| 7 | Thiago BREDifferential | 10.85 | 5.43 | 13.40 | 7.8 | 9.4% |
| 8 | Gibbs-White NFO | 10.75 | 5.37 | 13.84 | 8.0 | 15.8% |
| 9 | Gonzalo FULDifferential | 10.73 | 5.37 | 13.56 | 6.0 | 5.2% |
| 10 | Cole Palmer CHE | 10.44 | 5.22 | 16.01 | 9.7 | 24.3% |
| 11 | Calafiori ARS | 10.16 | 5.08 | 12.38 | 5.9 | 50.9% |
| 12 | E.Le Fée SUNDifferential | 9.99 | 5.00 | 12.95 | 5.7 | 3.3% |
| 13 | Tavernier BOUDifferential | 9.93 | 4.96 | 12.65 | 6.1 | 7.0% |
| 14 | Wirtz LIVDifferential | 9.82 | 4.91 | 12.77 | 7.3 | 5.6% |
| 15 | Wissa NEW | 9.71 | 4.85 | 12.42 | 6.2 | 19.0% |
| 16 | Szoboszlai LIV | 9.36 | 4.68 | 12.87 | 6.9 | 31.7% |
| 17 | Buendía AVLDifferential | 9.24 | 4.62 | 12.39 | 5.9 | 1.1% |
| 18 | Tarkowski EVE | 9.24 | 4.62 | 10.68 | 6.2 | 17.7% |
| 19 | Groß BHA | 9.10 | 4.55 | 12.25 | 5.9 | 32.0% |
| 20 | Ødegaard ARS | 8.97 | 4.49 | 11.38 | 6.8 | 20.0% |
Bottom line
Captain Saka — 15.93 is the highest doubled projection on the board.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Ceiling = the average of a player's best 15% of our 50,000 simulations — the score when his best realistic games happen, not a fantasy cap. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw6/captains.json.