{ "competition": "fantasy_premier_league", "gameweek": 6, "article": "captains", "title": "Best captain picks — Gameweek 6", "generated_at": "2026-10-09T14:26:59.973098+00:00", "sims": 50000, "methodology": "Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.", "entries": [ { "name": "Saka", "team": "ARS", "position": "MID", "x_points": 7.96, "captain_ev": 15.93, "ceiling": 17.83, "price": 9.6, "ownership_pct": 15.4, "value": 0.829, "bonus": 1.32, "defcon": 0.09, "p_defcon": 0.046, "cs_points": 0.51, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T11:30:00+00:00", "distribution": { "9": 3290, "10": 4998, "2": 8192, "3": 8058, "6": 2985, "8": 1591, "12": 939, "7": 1180, "16": 2122, "11": 3005, "15": 2103, "14": 1642, "17": 362, "5": 1683, "21": 538, "19": 603, "26": 118, "1": 1333, "13": 1715, "18": 664, "28": 32, "20": 539, "24": 171, "4": 648, "0": 882, "22": 112, "23": 169, "33": 9, "-1": 99, "25": 89, "30": 26, "29": 26, "32": 2, "27": 36, "38": 1, "-2": 17, "31": 11, "-3": 1, "35": 3, "47": 1, "34": 4, "36": 1 }, "p10": 2, "median": 7, "p90": 16, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.4008, "p_blank": 0.2105, "start_prob": 0.9867714065809352, "player_id": 12, "ep_next": 5.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 1, "kickoff_order": 1 }, { "name": "B.Fernandes", "team": "MUN", "position": "MID", "x_points": 7.16, "captain_ev": 14.31, "ceiling": 17.48, "price": 11.9, "ownership_pct": 38.2, "value": 0.602, "bonus": 1.26, "defcon": 0.05, "p_defcon": 0.023, "cs_points": 0.28, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T16:30:00+00:00", "distribution": { "2": 9231, "3": 4419, "5": 2334, "0": 4792, "21": 403, "9": 3547, "14": 1420, "18": 841, "10": 3520, "16": 1368, "8": 1921, "12": 1110, "1": 2231, "6": 2697, "11": 1883, "13": 1946, "19": 473, "15": 2203, "7": 1146, "20": 606, "4": 699, "-1": 114, "23": 222, "24": 114, "17": 339, "26": 76, "25": 108, "30": 19, "22": 86, "27": 15, "-2": 20, "32": 6, "29": 24, "28": 39, "31": 9, "34": 4, "35": 3, "33": 7, "-3": 1, "36": 1, "39": 1, "38": 2 }, "p10": 1, "median": 6, "p90": 15, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.337, "p_blank": 0.3278, "start_prob": 0.9, "player_id": 426, "ep_next": 2.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 2, "kickoff_order": 3 }, { "name": "Haaland", "team": "MCI", "position": "FWD", "x_points": 6.5, "captain_ev": 13.0, "ceiling": 14.8, "price": 15.6, "ownership_pct": 74.0, "value": 0.417, "bonus": 1.5, "defcon": 0.0, "p_defcon": 0.001, "cs_points": 0.0, "kickoff": "2026-10-11T15:30:00+00:00", "distribution": { "13": 5688, "8": 4482, "9": 9305, "2": 16956, "17": 1621, "1": 2893, "6": 712, "12": 1545, "21": 367, "-1": 187, "7": 1777, "5": 824, "11": 284, "20": 134, "16": 506, "0": 2133, "3": 65, "4": 171, "19": 27, "15": 64, "-2": 30, "10": 94, "25": 60, "14": 19, "28": 6, "24": 26, "29": 8, "18": 8, "-3": 3, "23": 3, "22": 1, "33": 1 }, "p10": 1, "median": 7, "p90": 13, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.2092, "p_blank": 0.444, "start_prob": 0.994735108304787, "player_id": 411, "ep_next": 7.5, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 3, "kickoff_order": 5 }, { "name": "Barry", "team": "EVE", "position": "FWD", "x_points": 6.02, "captain_ev": 12.04, "ceiling": 14.23, "price": 5.7, "ownership_pct": 8.6, "value": 1.056, "bonus": 1.36, "defcon": 0.0, "p_defcon": 0.0, "cs_points": 0.0, "kickoff": "2026-10-11T13:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "1": 3311, "5": 462, "13": 5157, "9": 8881, "21": 265, "2": 19573, "8": 5197, "6": 558, "7": 1772, "3": 76, "12": 1095, "17": 1303, "10": 90, "4": 120, "-1": 188, "19": 4, "16": 302, "0": 1324, "25": 42, "11": 123, "-2": 32, "20": 76, "15": 20, "23": 1, "24": 6, "14": 12, "29": 5, "28": 1, "18": 3, "37": 1 }, "p10": 2, "median": 5, "p90": 13, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.1701, "p_blank": 0.4886, "start_prob": 0.9832319835925567, "player_id": 249, "ep_next": 4.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 4, "kickoff_order": 4 }, { "name": "Mbeumo", "team": "MUN", "position": "MID", "x_points": 5.68, "captain_ev": 11.36, "ceiling": 15.24, "price": 7.9, "ownership_pct": 20.3, "value": 0.719, "bonus": 0.84, "defcon": 0.03, "p_defcon": 0.015, "cs_points": 0.28, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T16:30:00+00:00", "distribution": { "2": 12532, "4": 605, "3": 5920, "8": 3078, "9": 3749, "10": 2474, "1": 2962, "11": 1109, "6": 1893, "15": 1735, "19": 221, "7": 1747, "12": 769, "18": 358, "5": 1875, "-1": 150, "14": 1009, "13": 890, "16": 847, "0": 4960, "-2": 40, "26": 31, "17": 168, "21": 210, "20": 400, "23": 93, "29": 9, "25": 77, "34": 1, "22": 25, "24": 32, "-3": 1, "30": 8, "28": 10, "33": 1, "31": 5, "27": 5, "35": 1 }, "p10": 0, "median": 3, "p90": 14, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.2098, "p_blank": 0.4129, "start_prob": 0.9, "player_id": 427, "ep_next": 2.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 5, "kickoff_order": 3 }, { "name": "Gabriel", "team": "ARS", "position": "DEF", "x_points": 5.54, "captain_ev": 11.08, "ceiling": 12.19, "price": 8.0, "ownership_pct": 22.7, "value": 0.693, "bonus": 0.51, "defcon": 0.47, "p_defcon": 0.235, "cs_points": 2.03, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T11:30:00+00:00", "distribution": { "14": 802, "7": 6226, "2": 9389, "6": 6860, "8": 4981, "3": 1823, "5": 2457, "0": 1283, "1": 5313, "16": 269, "27": 4, "10": 1440, "11": 706, "4": 3243, "15": 963, "9": 2361, "12": 621, "18": 72, "13": 421, "19": 53, "17": 347, "-1": 148, "21": 64, "20": 39, "22": 9, "-2": 58, "24": 2, "23": 29, "-3": 13, "28": 1, "25": 1, "26": 1, "29": 1 }, "p10": 1, "median": 6, "p90": 10, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.1169, "p_blank": 0.3241, "start_prob": 0.9911956853164083, "player_id": 4, "ep_next": 5.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 6, "kickoff_order": 1 }, { "name": "Thiago", "team": "BRE", "position": "FWD", "x_points": 5.43, "captain_ev": 10.85, "ceiling": 13.4, "price": 7.8, "ownership_pct": 9.4, "value": 0.696, "bonus": 1.18, "defcon": 0.0, "p_defcon": 0.001, "cs_points": 0.0, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T14:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "2": 20497, "9": 7171, "13": 4208, "1": 3459, "8": 5155, "7": 2076, "21": 153, "-1": 282, "6": 873, "5": 955, "12": 1073, "11": 169, "10": 72, "17": 927, "16": 261, "4": 153, "3": 89, "-2": 36, "25": 18, "15": 35, "20": 63, "0": 2246, "24": 4, "14": 12, "27": 1, "18": 3, "19": 4, "-3": 2, "31": 1, "28": 1, "32": 1 }, "p10": 1, "median": 2, "p90": 13, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.1401, "p_blank": 0.5304, "start_prob": 0.9973896755460708, "player_id": 106, "ep_next": 3.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 7, "kickoff_order": 2 }, { "name": "Gibbs-White", "team": "NFO", "position": "MID", "x_points": 5.37, "captain_ev": 10.75, "ceiling": 13.84, "price": 8.0, "ownership_pct": 15.8, "value": 0.671, "bonus": 0.86, "defcon": 0.02, "p_defcon": 0.008, "cs_points": 0.27, "kickoff": "2026-10-11T13:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "2": 17548, "3": 6975, "6": 1258, "28": 7, "7": 1086, "8": 2296, "13": 673, "15": 1772, "10": 4034, "1": 2827, "4": 379, "16": 711, "9": 4154, "11": 1315, "18": 163, "21": 113, "-3": 1, "5": 1041, "-1": 211, "20": 310, "19": 117, "14": 628, "12": 342, "0": 1825, "17": 61, "23": 33, "24": 18, "31": 1, "-2": 27, "25": 35, "30": 4, "22": 11, "26": 17, "29": 4, "35": 1, "36": 1, "32": 1 }, "p10": 2, "median": 3, "p90": 12, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.2074, "p_blank": 0.4488, "start_prob": 0.9956199640518817, "player_id": 480, "ep_next": 5.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 8, "kickoff_order": 4 }, { "name": "Gonzalo", "team": "FUL", "position": "FWD", "x_points": 5.37, "captain_ev": 10.73, "ceiling": 13.56, "price": 6.0, "ownership_pct": 5.2, "value": 0.895, "bonus": 1.22, "defcon": 0.0, "p_defcon": 0.001, "cs_points": 0.0, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T14:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "9": 7585, "2": 19143, "13": 3893, "1": 3652, "4": 259, "17": 892, "6": 684, "7": 1654, "-1": 241, "16": 419, "8": 4404, "11": 247, "5": 1343, "12": 1338, "10": 91, "-2": 46, "21": 143, "15": 74, "14": 22, "0": 3657, "3": 73, "20": 85, "25": 18, "19": 12, "22": 1, "24": 12, "18": 4, "23": 4, "29": 3, "28": 1 }, "p10": 1, "median": 2, "p90": 13, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.1452, "p_blank": 0.5348, "start_prob": 0.965534868650664, "player_id": 569, "ep_next": 2.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 9, "kickoff_order": 2 }, { "name": "Cole Palmer", "team": "CHE", "position": "MID", "x_points": 5.22, "captain_ev": 10.44, "ceiling": 16.01, "price": 9.7, "ownership_pct": 24.3, "value": 0.538, "bonus": 1.09, "defcon": 0.03, "p_defcon": 0.016, "cs_points": 0.23, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T14:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "15": 1967, "19": 240, "16": 1023, "2": 8368, "8": 2015, "3": 4370, "10": 2998, "21": 293, "9": 3201, "1": 3331, "5": 1031, "11": 1045, "13": 869, "0": 13213, "12": 573, "7": 1128, "6": 1235, "4": 485, "20": 559, "24": 57, "14": 968, "18": 349, "23": 95, "17": 136, "-1": 116, "26": 55, "-2": 42, "31": 5, "25": 107, "30": 21, "35": 3, "22": 48, "28": 23, "27": 9, "29": 12, "34": 4, "32": 3, "36": 2, "-3": 1 }, "p10": 0, "median": 2, "p90": 15, "mode": 0, "p_haul": 0.2293, "p_blank": 0.5014, "start_prob": 0.75, "player_id": 154, "ep_next": 2.6, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 10, "kickoff_order": 2 }, { "name": "Calafiori", "team": "ARS", "position": "DEF", "x_points": 5.08, "captain_ev": 10.16, "ceiling": 12.38, "price": 5.9, "ownership_pct": 50.9, "value": 0.861, "bonus": 0.24, "defcon": 0.05, "p_defcon": 0.023, "cs_points": 2.01, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T11:30:00+00:00", "distribution": { "6": 16707, "2": 10126, "5": 2899, "1": 7393, "7": 1489, "4": 685, "8": 2004, "0": 1923, "11": 555, "15": 1432, "14": 1094, "-1": 185, "9": 678, "3": 392, "12": 402, "10": 553, "-2": 91, "16": 108, "18": 124, "21": 178, "19": 31, "20": 71, "13": 649, "17": 161, "27": 9, "22": 8, "23": 21, "29": 2, "-3": 13, "24": 14, "26": 3 }, "p10": 1, "median": 6, "p90": 10, "mode": 6, "p_haul": 0.1083, "p_blank": 0.3946, "start_prob": 0.9841168393396513, "player_id": 8, "ep_next": 3.5, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 11, "kickoff_order": 1 }, { "name": "E.Le Fée", "team": "SUN", "position": "MID", "x_points": 5.0, "captain_ev": 9.99, "ceiling": 12.95, "price": 5.7, "ownership_pct": 3.3, "value": 0.877, "bonus": 0.67, "defcon": 0.02, "p_defcon": 0.009, "cs_points": 0.24, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T14:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "8": 2143, "3": 6246, "2": 19254, "14": 644, "13": 1031, "7": 1326, "18": 240, "9": 3458, "5": 2750, "12": 514, "1": 2966, "19": 92, "15": 1034, "17": 89, "4": 694, "16": 436, "6": 2381, "10": 2513, "11": 1074, "0": 582, "-1": 223, "23": 28, "-2": 34, "25": 19, "20": 126, "21": 61, "28": 2, "26": 10, "24": 11, "29": 1, "22": 12, "31": 1, "-3": 2, "27": 2, "33": 1 }, "p10": 2, "median": 3, "p90": 11, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.1588, "p_blank": 0.4612, "start_prob": 0.9938502525576923, "player_id": 542, "ep_next": 2.5, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 12, "kickoff_order": 2 }, { "name": "Tavernier", "team": "BOU", "position": "MID", "x_points": 4.96, "captain_ev": 9.93, "ceiling": 12.65, "price": 6.1, "ownership_pct": 7.0, "value": 0.813, "bonus": 0.71, "defcon": 0.23, "p_defcon": 0.115, "cs_points": 0.14, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T14:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "11": 1226, "2": 19704, "4": 3044, "1": 3080, "13": 872, "5": 2668, "9": 2861, "3": 4214, "10": 3413, "8": 1640, "6": 1810, "12": 953, "14": 541, "23": 18, "15": 926, "17": 174, "0": 454, "-1": 250, "7": 1399, "16": 291, "21": 46, "19": 47, "20": 108, "18": 191, "25": 13, "-2": 29, "22": 17, "28": 1, "27": 1, "30": 1, "24": 4, "31": 2, "26": 2 }, "p10": 2, "median": 3, "p90": 11, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.1769, "p_blank": 0.4703, "start_prob": 0.9920805410635031, "player_id": 68, "ep_next": 5.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 13, "kickoff_order": 2 }, { "name": "Wirtz", "team": "LIV", "position": "MID", "x_points": 4.91, "captain_ev": 9.82, "ceiling": 12.77, "price": 7.3, "ownership_pct": 5.6, "value": 0.673, "bonus": 0.6, "defcon": 0.17, "p_defcon": 0.083, "cs_points": 0.21, "kickoff": "2026-10-11T15:30:00+00:00", "distribution": { "8": 2406, "6": 1830, "1": 3038, "7": 1534, "15": 838, "2": 18515, "3": 5298, "12": 691, "10": 2000, "9": 3352, "5": 3093, "4": 2179, "18": 233, "11": 1188, "14": 717, "16": 399, "20": 144, "-1": 231, "13": 822, "0": 1121, "19": 77, "17": 133, "25": 14, "21": 46, "-2": 41, "23": 26, "26": 8, "24": 6, "22": 15, "-3": 1, "30": 1, "28": 3 }, "p10": 2, "median": 3, "p90": 11, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.1472, "p_blank": 0.4589, "start_prob": 0.9885411180751246, "player_id": 366, "ep_next": 4.5, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 14, "kickoff_order": 5 }, { "name": "Wissa", "team": "NEW", "position": "FWD", "x_points": 4.85, "captain_ev": 9.71, "ceiling": 12.42, "price": 6.2, "ownership_pct": 19.0, "value": 0.782, "bonus": 1.03, "defcon": 0.01, "p_defcon": 0.004, "cs_points": 0.0, "kickoff": "2026-10-12T19:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "2": 21212, "12": 1135, "8": 4642, "13": 2974, "5": 1520, "9": 6081, "7": 1906, "1": 3857, "17": 550, "4": 377, "16": 338, "21": 90, "11": 337, "6": 812, "-1": 234, "10": 125, "19": 23, "3": 60, "-2": 39, "15": 73, "0": 3512, "20": 60, "14": 24, "-3": 3, "24": 5, "25": 6, "18": 2, "28": 2, "22": 1 }, "p10": 1, "median": 2, "p90": 12, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.1149, "p_blank": 0.5771, "start_prob": 0.9681894358919478, "player_id": 464, "ep_next": 1.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 15, "kickoff_order": 6 }, { "name": "Szoboszlai", "team": "LIV", "position": "MID", "x_points": 4.68, "captain_ev": 9.36, "ceiling": 12.87, "price": 6.9, "ownership_pct": 31.7, "value": 0.678, "bonus": 0.67, "defcon": 0.17, "p_defcon": 0.087, "cs_points": 0.18, "kickoff": "2026-10-11T15:30:00+00:00", "distribution": { "16": 380, "1": 3318, "2": 16246, "4": 2207, "11": 1339, "14": 651, "10": 2017, "3": 4721, "12": 716, "8": 1900, "15": 905, "7": 1257, "6": 1831, "9": 3248, "19": 93, "5": 2715, "0": 4741, "13": 874, "21": 48, "-2": 36, "-1": 160, "17": 159, "20": 114, "18": 229, "24": 9, "23": 34, "25": 12, "22": 26, "26": 7, "-3": 3, "27": 3, "28": 1 }, "p10": 1, "median": 3, "p90": 11, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.1523, "p_blank": 0.4901, "start_prob": 0.9, "player_id": 368, "ep_next": 2.5, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 16, "kickoff_order": 5 }, { "name": "Buendía", "team": "AVL", "position": "MID", "x_points": 4.62, "captain_ev": 9.24, "ceiling": 12.39, "price": 5.9, "ownership_pct": 1.1, "value": 0.783, "bonus": 0.54, "defcon": 0.11, "p_defcon": 0.057, "cs_points": 0.24, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T14:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "8": 2650, "5": 2051, "9": 3363, "7": 1711, "1": 3741, "3": 6536, "2": 18453, "6": 1358, "12": 453, "17": 112, "11": 843, "-1": 230, "4": 1521, "15": 958, "10": 1962, "22": 18, "0": 1921, "18": 157, "14": 609, "16": 442, "13": 545, "19": 59, "21": 47, "-2": 43, "20": 158, "24": 11, "23": 17, "31": 1, "-3": 2, "26": 2, "25": 24, "27": 1, "30": 1 }, "p10": 1, "median": 3, "p90": 10, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.1284, "p_blank": 0.4878, "start_prob": 0.9832319835925567, "player_id": 41, "ep_next": 7.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 17, "kickoff_order": 2 }, { "name": "Tarkowski", "team": "EVE", "position": "DEF", "x_points": 4.62, "captain_ev": 9.24, "ceiling": 10.68, "price": 6.2, "ownership_pct": 17.7, "value": 0.745, "bonus": 0.4, "defcon": 0.76, "p_defcon": 0.379, "cs_points": 1.4, "kickoff": "2026-10-11T13:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "3": 4794, "2": 9333, "8": 3762, "6": 3192, "1": 7412, "5": 1575, "7": 5014, "10": 1633, "4": 5600, "0": 1952, "11": 514, "12": 408, "13": 248, "16": 130, "9": 2967, "18": 26, "-1": 209, "14": 384, "17": 252, "15": 423, "-2": 102, "20": 13, "-3": 17, "21": 10, "23": 2, "19": 20, "22": 6, "-4": 2 }, "p10": 1, "median": 4, "p90": 9, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.0814, "p_blank": 0.3805, "start_prob": 0.9973896755460708, "player_id": 229, "ep_next": 11.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 18, "kickoff_order": 4 }, { "name": "Groß", "team": "BHA", "position": "MID", "x_points": 4.55, "captain_ev": 9.1, "ceiling": 12.25, "price": 5.9, "ownership_pct": 32.0, "value": 0.771, "bonus": 0.63, "defcon": 0.04, "p_defcon": 0.019, "cs_points": 0.28, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T14:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "2": 17989, "10": 3321, "5": 2564, "9": 2511, "3": 7448, "1": 3072, "6": 2652, "17": 66, "8": 1332, "15": 677, "20": 79, "14": 491, "21": 49, "4": 837, "13": 883, "12": 502, "16": 372, "7": 977, "11": 985, "18": 177, "23": 21, "-1": 212, "0": 2626, "22": 15, "19": 79, "-2": 42, "24": 6, "25": 8, "26": 6, "28": 1 }, "p10": 1, "median": 3, "p90": 10, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.1548, "p_blank": 0.4788, "start_prob": 0.9805774163512727, "player_id": 124, "ep_next": 15.5, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 19, "kickoff_order": 2 }, { "name": "Ødegaard", "team": "ARS", "position": "MID", "x_points": 4.49, "captain_ev": 8.97, "ceiling": 11.38, "price": 6.8, "ownership_pct": 20.0, "value": 0.66, "bonus": 0.51, "defcon": 0.04, "p_defcon": 0.02, "cs_points": 0.51, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T11:30:00+00:00", "distribution": { "3": 14057, "6": 4683, "9": 1214, "1": 2632, "2": 12616, "5": 2946, "14": 494, "8": 1071, "7": 2019, "17": 81, "13": 730, "10": 2164, "11": 1664, "12": 581, "4": 853, "15": 213, "-2": 31, "16": 230, "0": 1376, "-1": 182, "18": 48, "23": 4, "19": 57, "20": 18, "22": 15, "21": 13, "24": 2, "-3": 3, "25": 2, "29": 1 }, "p10": 2, "median": 3, "p90": 10, "mode": 3, "p_haul": 0.1263, "p_blank": 0.3368, "start_prob": 0.9788077048570836, "player_id": 15, "ep_next": 2.5, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 20, "kickoff_order": 1 } ], "source": "https://evmax.ai", "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "license_text": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with attribution to evmax (https://evmax.ai)" }