Gameweek 6 spreads: Saka hauls 40% of the time
Every projection on this site is the average of tens of thousands of simulated gameweeks. This is the shape behind the average: Saka blanks in 21% of them and scores double figures in 40%.
Saka (ARS) projects 15.93 with the armband. Behind that one number: his floor is 2 points in the worst tenth of simulations, his single most likely score is 2, and his ceiling is 16 in the best tenth. He reaches double figures in 40% of simulations and returns two points or fewer in 21%.
B.Fernandes is the alternative at 14.31 captained, on a floor of 1 and a ceiling of 15. He outscores Saka in 44% of simulated gameweeks. That comparison treats the two players as independent of each other. They are not: two attackers in the same match rise and fall together, and our simulation knows it even though this figure does not. Read it as the size of the gap, not as a settled number.
Saka holds both ends of the board this week: the highest floor (2) and the highest ceiling (16). That is unusual, and it is the case for taking him.
The data
| # | Player | Captain EV | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Haul % | Blank % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saka ARS | 15.93 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 40% | 21% |
| 2 | B.Fernandes MUN | 14.31 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 34% | 33% |
| 3 | Haaland MCI | 13.00 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 21% | 44% |
| 4 | Barry EVEDifferential | 12.04 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 17% | 49% |
| 5 | Mbeumo MUN | 11.36 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 21% | 41% |
| 6 | Gabriel ARS | 11.08 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 12% | 32% |
| 7 | Thiago BREDifferential | 10.85 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 14% | 53% |
| 8 | Gibbs-White NFO | 10.75 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 21% | 45% |
Bottom line
Captain Saka — 40% of simulations reach double figures, against a 21% chance of two points or fewer.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw6/distributions.json.