Muharemović is the gameweek 6 DefCon banker
He clears the 10-action threshold in 46% of simulations.
Muharemović (LEE) records at least 10 defensive actions in 46% of our simulations, worth 0.92 on its own. Defensive contribution is a threshold, not a rate: a player either clears the count in a given match or earns nothing, which is why we quote the hit rate rather than an average.
Botman is next at 46% against a 10-action threshold.
The data
| # | Player | P(DefCon) | DefCon pts | xPts | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muharemović LEEDifferential | 46% | 0.92 | 2.87 | 5.0 | 4.4% |
| 2 | Botman NEWDifferential | 46% | 0.91 | 3.96 | 5.0 | 0.7% |
| 3 | Egan HULDifferential | 45% | 0.90 | 3.17 | 4.1 | 7.1% |
| 4 | Silva BOUDifferential | 44% | 0.88 | 3.29 | 5.0 | 0.5% |
| 5 | Wesley Fofana CHEDifferential | 42% | 0.85 | 3.59 | 5.0 | 0.2% |
| 6 | Richards CRYDifferential | 42% | 0.84 | 4.33 | 4.9 | 0.6% |
| 7 | Branthwaite EVEDifferential | 41% | 0.83 | 4.06 | 5.5 | 2.6% |
| 8 | Mukiele SUNDifferential | 41% | 0.83 | 4.01 | 5.4 | 1.9% |
| 9 | Bobby Thomas COVDifferential | 38% | 0.77 | 3.75 | 4.0 | 8.6% |
| 10 | Tarkowski EVE | 38% | 0.76 | 4.62 | 6.2 | 17.7% |
| 11 | Pinnock COVDifferential | 38% | 0.76 | 2.51 | 4.5 | 0.1% |
| 12 | Murillo NFODifferential | 37% | 0.73 | 3.71 | 5.5 | 2.2% |
| 13 | Hill BOUDifferential | 36% | 0.72 | 2.89 | 5.5 | 0.8% |
| 14 | Ajer BREDifferential | 35% | 0.69 | 3.34 | 4.5 | 3.8% |
| 15 | Virgil LIV | 34% | 0.67 | 3.71 | 6.5 | 16.2% |
| 16 | Lacroix CHEDifferential | 33% | 0.66 | 3.17 | 5.9 | 6.7% |
| 17 | Khalaili CRYDifferential | 33% | 0.66 | 4.04 | 5.0 | 0.3% |
| 18 | Janelt BREDifferential | 32% | 0.65 | 3.33 | 5.0 | 2.5% |
| 19 | O'Shea IPSDifferential | 32% | 0.65 | 3.32 | 4.0 | 2.6% |
| 20 | Bentancur TOTDifferential | 32% | 0.63 | 2.59 | 5.5 | 0.2% |
Bottom line
Muharemović is the most reliable route to the 2-point defensive bonus — 46% of simulations.
Get the next round the moment odds drop
50,000 simulations per matchday — captains, EV and match predictions in your inbox before lock.
Double opt-in. No spam, no tracking. Unsubscribe anytime.
How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw6/defcon.json.