The Consensus XI: gameweek 6 comparator
The recorded comparator squad — Haaland captains, João Pedro is vice.
| Player | Club | Pts | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raya | ARS | 3 | played |
| Calafiori | ARS | 9 | played |
| O'Reilly | MCI | 5 | played |
| Shaw | MUN | 3 | played |
| Szoboszlai | LIV | (0) | blank — 0 minutes — Guéhi comes in |
| Mbeumo | MUN | 8 | played |
| Tzolis | ARS | (0) | blank — 0 minutes — Diop comes in |
| Rogers | CHE | 9 | played |
| Haaland | MCI | 12 (c) | played |
| João Pedro | CHE | 12 | played |
| Calvert-Lewin | LEE | 2 | played |
| Kinsky | TOT | (3) | played |
| Guéhi | MCI | 6 | autosub in — in for Szoboszlai |
| Diop | IPS | 2 | autosub in — in for Tzolis |
| Slater | HUL | (2) | played |
Rebuilt for gameweek 2 as the most-owned legal template: top selected_by_percent per position from the official bootstrap, greedily legalised under budget, quota and club cap; captain = highest-owned premium (>= 10.0m), vice next. This rebuild is the squad's declared Wildcard; the GW1 expert mention-tally method is retired. GW1 is graded as published.
This is the held comparator roster, not a fresh poll of expert teams. Both squads use the same forecast model for expected points and minutes. Their realized score gap combines player selection, captaincy, chips and football variance; it does not isolate information quality.
The 3-4-3 XI projects 41.86 points, 48.36 with the captain doubled.
Method description corrected 2026-10-13. Original forecast numbers, squad and archived prose remain unchanged.
The data
| # | Player | xPts | Ceiling | Captain EV | Pts/m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raya ARS | 4.36 | 8.75 | 8.72 | 0.71 |
| 2 | Calafiori ARS | 5.08 | 12.38 | 10.16 | 0.86 |
| 3 | O'Reilly MCI | 1.12 | 6.01 | 2.25 | 0.18 |
| 4 | Shaw MUNDifferential | 2.70 | 7.97 | 5.40 | 0.63 |
| 5 | Szoboszlai LIV | 4.68 | 12.87 | 9.36 | 0.68 |
| 6 | Mbeumo MUN | 5.68 | 15.24 | 11.36 | 0.72 |
| 7 | Tzolis ARS | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 8 | Rogers CHE | 4.29 | 11.47 | 8.59 | 0.55 |
| 9 | Haaland MCI | 6.50 | 14.80 | 13.00 | 0.42 |
| 10 | João Pedro CHE | 4.12 | 12.55 | 8.25 | 0.54 |
| 11 | Calvert-Lewin LEE | 3.33 | 9.85 | 6.66 | 0.56 |
| 12 | Kinsky TOTBench | 2.07 | 7.07 | 4.14 | 0.46 |
| 13 | Guéhi MCIBench | 3.27 | 9.17 | 6.54 | 0.55 |
| 14 | Diop IPSBench | 3.47 | 9.49 | 6.94 | 0.87 |
| 15 | Slater HULDifferentialBench | 2.64 | 6.97 | 5.29 | 0.59 |
Bottom line
Comparator: 3-4-3, Haaland (c) — 48.36 projected on our model's numbers.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Ceiling = the average of a player's best 15% of our 50,000 simulations — the score when his best realistic games happen, not a fantasy cap. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw6/consensus-squad.json.