The Consensus XI: gameweek 5 comparator
The recorded comparator squad — Haaland captains, João Pedro is vice.
Rebuilt for gameweek 2 as the most-owned legal template: top selected_by_percent per position from the official bootstrap, greedily legalised under budget, quota and club cap; captain = highest-owned premium (>= 10.0m), vice next. This rebuild is the squad's declared Wildcard; the GW1 expert mention-tally method is retired. GW1 is graded as published.
This is the held comparator roster, not a fresh poll of expert teams. Both squads use the same forecast model for expected points and minutes. Their realized score gap combines player selection, captaincy, chips and football variance; it does not isolate information quality.
The 3-4-3 XI projects 44.68 points, 52.70 with the captain doubled.
Method description corrected 2026-10-13. Original forecast numbers, squad and archived prose remain unchanged.
The data
| # | Player | xPts | Ceiling | Captain EV | Pts/m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raya ARS | 3.62 | 8.59 | 7.23 | 0.60 |
| 2 | Calafiori ARS | 4.12 | 10.65 | 8.23 | 0.71 |
| 3 | O'Reilly MCI | 2.07 | 8.65 | 4.13 | 0.32 |
| 4 | Shaw MUNDifferential | 1.70 | 7.34 | 3.41 | 0.39 |
| 5 | Szoboszlai LIV | 4.46 | 12.71 | 8.93 | 0.64 |
| 6 | Mbeumo MUN | 5.10 | 13.75 | 10.20 | 0.65 |
| 7 | Tzolis ARS | 2.37 | 7.27 | 4.74 | 0.37 |
| 8 | Rogers CHE | 3.89 | 10.53 | 7.77 | 0.51 |
| 9 | Haaland MCI | 8.02 | 17.06 | 16.05 | 0.52 |
| 10 | João Pedro CHE | 3.07 | 10.98 | 6.15 | 0.39 |
| 11 | Calvert-Lewin LEE | 6.26 | 14.78 | 12.52 | 1.04 |
| 12 | Kinsky TOTBench | 3.37 | 8.88 | 6.74 | 0.75 |
| 13 | Guéhi MCIBench | 4.90 | 11.45 | 9.81 | 0.82 |
| 14 | Diop IPSBench | 2.65 | 8.43 | 5.31 | 0.66 |
| 15 | Slater HULDifferentialBench | 2.64 | 7.06 | 5.28 | 0.59 |
Bottom line
Comparator: 3-4-3, Haaland (c) — 52.70 projected on our model's numbers.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Ceiling = the average of a player's best 15% of our 50,000 simulations — the score when his best realistic games happen, not a fantasy cap. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw5/consensus-squad.json.