De Cuyper is the best value in gameweek 4
0.95 points per million at 4.8.
De Cuyper returns 0.95 points per million — 4.58 expected points at 4.8.
The best pick in each price bracket — Budget: De Cuyper (0.95 xPts/£, £4.8m); Mid: Calvert-Lewin (0.86 xPts/£, £6.0m); Premium: Cole Palmer (0.80 xPts/£, £9.7m).
The data
| # | Player | Pts/m | xPts | Price | Owned % | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | De Cuyper BHABudget | 0.95 | 4.58 | 4.8 | 20.9% | 12.86 |
| 2 | Dean Henderson CRYBudgetDifferential | 0.87 | 4.36 | 5.0 | 2.0% | 10.03 |
| 3 | Emiliano Martínez Romero CHEBudgetDifferential | 0.87 | 4.35 | 5.0 | 5.0% | 10.80 |
| 4 | Calvert-Lewin LEEMid | 0.86 | 5.14 | 6.0 | 22.9% | 13.71 |
| 5 | Van Hecke TOTBudgetDifferential | 0.86 | 4.20 | 4.9 | 6.9% | 10.79 |
| 6 | Tavernier BOUMidDifferential | 0.85 | 5.12 | 6.0 | 3.4% | 13.26 |
| 7 | Richards CRYBudgetDifferential | 0.84 | 4.22 | 5.0 | 0.7% | 10.32 |
| 8 | Barry EVEMidDifferential | 0.84 | 4.69 | 5.6 | 5.9% | 11.95 |
| 9 | Nketiah CRYMidDifferential | 0.83 | 4.55 | 5.5 | 0.7% | 12.53 |
| 10 | Szoboszlai LIVMid | 0.82 | 5.77 | 7.0 | 38.4% | 14.81 |
| 11 | Maatsen AVLBudgetDifferential | 0.82 | 3.70 | 4.5 | 0.8% | 10.02 |
| 12 | Mitchell CRYBudgetDifferential | 0.82 | 3.70 | 4.5 | 6.2% | 9.19 |
| 13 | Diego Gómez Amarilla BHABudgetDifferential | 0.80 | 4.02 | 5.0 | 4.8% | 11.28 |
| 14 | Groß BHAMid | 0.80 | 4.47 | 5.6 | 16.3% | 12.30 |
| 15 | Cole Palmer CHEPremium | 0.80 | 7.71 | 9.7 | 24.8% | 18.87 |
| 16 | Hato CHEBudgetDifferential | 0.79 | 3.57 | 4.5 | 0.9% | 8.42 |
| 17 | Calafiori ARSMid | 0.78 | 4.54 | 5.8 | 48.5% | 11.48 |
| 18 | Dunk BHABudgetDifferential | 0.78 | 3.52 | 4.5 | 1.3% | 8.91 |
| 19 | Justin LEEBudgetDifferential | 0.78 | 3.52 | 4.5 | 1.5% | 9.46 |
| 20 | Lacroix CHEMidDifferential | 0.78 | 4.65 | 6.0 | 8.1% | 10.34 |
Bottom line
By tier: budget — De Cuyper, mid — Calvert-Lewin, premium — Cole Palmer.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Ceiling = the average of a player's best 15% of our 50,000 simulations — the score when his best realistic games happen, not a fantasy cap. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw4/efficiency.json.