Gabriel leads the gameweek 4 defenders
4.78 expected points, with 1.92 of it from clean sheets alone.
Gabriel (ARS) projects 4.78: 1.92 from clean sheets, 0.33 from defensive contribution and 0.26 from bonus. Where a defender's points come from matters as much as the total — a clean-sheet projection lives or dies on one fixture, while defensive contribution pays regardless of the scoreline.
The data
| # | Player | xPts | CS pts | DefCon pts | Bonus | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriel ARS | 4.78 | 1.92 | 0.33 | 0.26 | 8.0 |
| 2 | Lacroix CHEDifferential | 4.65 | 1.71 | 0.66 | 0.28 | 6.0 |
| 3 | De Cuyper BHA | 4.58 | 1.24 | 0.06 | 0.42 | 4.8 |
| 4 | Calafiori ARS | 4.54 | 1.82 | 0.06 | 0.24 | 5.8 |
| 5 | Dean Henderson CRYDifferential | 4.36 | 1.34 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 5.0 |
| 6 | Emiliano Martínez Romero CHEDifferential | 4.35 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 1.09 | 5.0 |
| 7 | Virgil LIV | 4.33 | 1.36 | 0.45 | 0.29 | 6.5 |
| 8 | Raya ARS | 4.28 | 1.93 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 6.0 |
| 9 | Richards CRYDifferential | 4.22 | 1.30 | 0.65 | 0.27 | 5.0 |
| 10 | Van Hecke TOTDifferential | 4.20 | 1.29 | 0.32 | 0.40 | 4.9 |
| 11 | White ARSDifferential | 4.16 | 1.74 | 0.11 | 0.47 | 5.5 |
| 12 | Maatsen AVLDifferential | 3.70 | 1.12 | 0.33 | 0.19 | 4.5 |
| 13 | Mitchell CRYDifferential | 3.70 | 1.34 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 4.5 |
| 14 | Hall NEW | 3.68 | 0.88 | 0.62 | 0.42 | 5.1 |
| 15 | N.Williams NFODifferential | 3.64 | 0.97 | 0.40 | 0.42 | 5.0 |
| 16 | Van de Ven TOTDifferential | 3.64 | 1.16 | 0.38 | 0.21 | 5.0 |
| 17 | Canvot CRYDifferential | 3.62 | 1.21 | 0.38 | 0.17 | 4.9 |
| 18 | Hato CHEDifferential | 3.57 | 1.52 | 0.24 | 0.09 | 4.5 |
| 19 | A.Becker LIVDifferential | 3.57 | 1.30 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 5.5 |
| 20 | Khalaili CRYDifferential | 3.56 | 0.84 | 0.66 | 0.46 | 5.0 |
Bottom line
Gabriel at 8.0 is the defensive pick of the gameweek.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw4/defenders.json.