Egan is the gameweek 4 DefCon banker
He clears the 10-action threshold in 44% of simulations.
Egan (HUL) records at least 10 defensive actions in 44% of our simulations, worth 0.88 on its own. Defensive contribution is a threshold, not a rate: a player either clears the count in a given match or earns nothing, which is why we quote the hit rate rather than an average.
Muharemović is next at 42% against a 10-action threshold.
The data
| # | Player | P(DefCon) | DefCon pts | xPts | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Egan HULDifferential | 44% | 0.88 | 1.91 | 4.1 | 6.3% |
| 2 | Muharemović LEEDifferential | 42% | 0.85 | 3.53 | 5.0 | 3.6% |
| 3 | Mukiele SUNDifferential | 41% | 0.81 | 2.57 | 5.5 | 2.2% |
| 4 | Tarkowski EVE | 34% | 0.68 | 3.53 | 6.0 | 11.4% |
| 5 | Ajer BREDifferential | 34% | 0.67 | 3.00 | 4.5 | 4.7% |
| 6 | Khalaili CRYDifferential | 33% | 0.66 | 3.56 | 5.0 | 0.3% |
| 7 | Milenković NFODifferential | 33% | 0.66 | 3.19 | 5.5 | 1.6% |
| 8 | Lacroix CHEDifferential | 33% | 0.66 | 4.65 | 6.0 | 8.1% |
| 9 | Richards CRYDifferential | 32% | 0.65 | 4.22 | 5.0 | 0.7% |
| 10 | Hall NEW | 31% | 0.62 | 3.68 | 5.1 | 12.7% |
| 11 | Wesley Fofana CHEDifferential | 30% | 0.61 | 3.35 | 5.0 | 0.1% |
| 12 | Branthwaite EVEDifferential | 30% | 0.61 | 2.83 | 5.5 | 1.9% |
| 13 | Bobby Thomas COVDifferential | 29% | 0.59 | 2.98 | 4.0 | 8.9% |
| 14 | Silva BOUDifferential | 29% | 0.58 | 3.08 | 5.0 | 0.4% |
| 15 | Justin LEEDifferential | 29% | 0.58 | 3.52 | 4.5 | 1.5% |
| 16 | O'Shea IPSDifferential | 29% | 0.58 | 2.72 | 4.0 | 3.0% |
| 17 | Murillo NFODifferential | 27% | 0.55 | 3.20 | 5.5 | 1.6% |
| 18 | Ballard SUNDifferential | 27% | 0.54 | 2.77 | 4.9 | 3.3% |
| 19 | Diop IPS | 24% | 0.49 | 2.74 | 4.0 | 14.5% |
| 20 | Jair Cunha NFODifferential | 22% | 0.45 | 2.76 | 4.5 | 0.2% |
Bottom line
Egan is the most reliable route to the 2-point defensive bonus — 44% of simulations.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw4/defcon.json.