The Consensus XI: gameweek 4 comparator
The recorded comparator squad — Haaland captains, João Pedro is vice.
Rebuilt for gameweek 2 as the most-owned legal template: top selected_by_percent per position from the official bootstrap, greedily legalised under budget, quota and club cap; captain = highest-owned premium (>= 10.0m), vice next. This rebuild is the squad's declared Wildcard; the GW1 expert mention-tally method is retired. GW1 is graded as published.
This is the held comparator roster, not a fresh poll of expert teams. Both squads use the same forecast model for expected points and minutes. Their realized score gap combines player selection, captaincy, chips and football variance; it does not isolate information quality.
The 3-4-3 XI projects 47.40 points, 53.57 with the captain doubled.
Method description corrected 2026-10-13. Original forecast numbers, squad and archived prose remain unchanged.
The data
| # | Player | xPts | Ceiling | Captain EV | Pts/m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raya ARS | 4.28 | 8.80 | 8.56 | 0.71 |
| 2 | Calafiori ARS | 4.54 | 11.48 | 9.07 | 0.78 |
| 3 | O'Reilly MCI | 1.97 | 7.89 | 3.94 | 0.31 |
| 4 | Shaw MUN | 2.30 | 7.68 | 4.61 | 0.52 |
| 5 | Szoboszlai LIV | 5.77 | 14.81 | 11.54 | 0.82 |
| 6 | Mbeumo MUN | 4.29 | 12.10 | 8.59 | 0.54 |
| 7 | Tzolis ARS | 2.41 | 7.54 | 4.83 | 0.38 |
| 8 | Rogers CHE | 4.66 | 12.08 | 9.31 | 0.61 |
| 9 | Haaland MCI | 6.17 | 14.77 | 12.33 | 0.40 |
| 10 | João Pedro CHE | 5.87 | 14.48 | 11.75 | 0.76 |
| 11 | Calvert-Lewin LEE | 5.14 | 13.71 | 10.28 | 0.86 |
| 12 | Kinsky TOTBench | 3.29 | 8.77 | 6.57 | 0.73 |
| 13 | Guéhi MCIBench | 3.19 | 9.39 | 6.38 | 0.53 |
| 14 | Diop IPSBench | 2.74 | 8.61 | 5.48 | 0.69 |
| 15 | Slater HULDifferentialBench | 2.10 | 5.61 | 4.20 | 0.47 |
Bottom line
Comparator: 3-4-3, Haaland (c) — 53.57 projected on our model's numbers.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Ceiling = the average of a player's best 15% of our 50,000 simulations — the score when his best realistic games happen, not a fantasy cap. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw4/consensus-squad.json.