Cole Palmer is the gameweek 4 captain
15.41 captain EV, 18.87 ceiling — the best armband in the model.
Cole Palmer (CHE) projects 15.41 captained, off 7.71 expected points, with a ceiling of 18.87 — the average of his best 15% of simulations.
Saka is the alternative at 13.05. He kicks off later, so he works as a vice only if your captain's match is already done.
The data
| # | Player | Captain EV | xPts | Ceiling | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cole Palmer CHE | 15.41 | 7.71 | 18.87 | 9.7 | 24.8% |
| 2 | Saka ARS | 13.05 | 6.53 | 16.07 | 9.5 | 11.4% |
| 3 | Haaland MCI | 12.33 | 6.17 | 14.77 | 15.5 | 71.3% |
| 4 | João Pedro CHE | 11.75 | 5.87 | 14.48 | 7.7 | 72.9% |
| 5 | Szoboszlai LIV | 11.54 | 5.77 | 14.81 | 7.0 | 38.4% |
| 6 | B.Fernandes MUN | 10.77 | 5.39 | 14.41 | 12.0 | 44.5% |
| 7 | Thiago BRE | 10.56 | 5.28 | 13.34 | 7.9 | 11.4% |
| 8 | Calvert-Lewin LEE | 10.28 | 5.14 | 13.71 | 6.0 | 22.9% |
| 9 | Tavernier BOUDifferential | 10.23 | 5.12 | 13.26 | 6.0 | 3.4% |
| 10 | Wirtz LIVDifferential | 9.91 | 4.96 | 13.17 | 7.4 | 8.1% |
| 11 | Isak LIV | 9.90 | 4.95 | 13.39 | 9.1 | 22.1% |
| 12 | Gibbs-White NFODifferential | 9.87 | 4.93 | 13.29 | 7.9 | 9.4% |
| 13 | Gabriel ARS | 9.56 | 4.78 | 10.91 | 8.0 | 24.4% |
| 14 | Barry EVEDifferential | 9.38 | 4.69 | 11.95 | 5.6 | 5.9% |
| 15 | Rogers CHE | 9.31 | 4.66 | 12.08 | 7.6 | 31.2% |
| 16 | Lacroix CHEDifferential | 9.29 | 4.65 | 10.34 | 6.0 | 8.1% |
| 17 | De Cuyper BHA | 9.16 | 4.58 | 12.86 | 4.8 | 20.9% |
| 18 | Nketiah CRYDifferential | 9.11 | 4.55 | 12.53 | 5.5 | 0.7% |
| 19 | Calafiori ARS | 9.07 | 4.54 | 11.48 | 5.8 | 48.5% |
| 20 | Groß BHA | 8.93 | 4.47 | 12.30 | 5.6 | 16.3% |
Bottom line
Captain Cole Palmer — 15.41 is the highest doubled projection on the board.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Ceiling = the average of a player's best 15% of our 50,000 simulations — the score when his best realistic games happen, not a fantasy cap. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw4/captains.json.