Mike Maignan is your round 5 transfer priority
The France goalkeeper offers 4.98 points of value over replacement, backed by a 92.3% advancement probability.
Mike Maignan sits atop the transfer board not because of raw expected points—his 5.16 xPts are modest—but because of what he delivers relative to a replacement-level goalkeeper. His value over replacement stands at 4.98, the highest on the list. That gap matters in knockout football, where every marginal edge compounds across a shrinking fixture list.
The advancement math is critical here. Maignan's France side carries a 92.3% probability of progressing past their Round 5 tie. This is the hidden multiplier in knockout fantasy: a brilliant pick on an eliminated team is wasted capital. The model rewards Maignan precisely because his elite relative value is paired with near-certainty of continued play. Compare that to Yassine 'Bono' Bounou, Morocco's goalkeeper, who offers 4.11 value over replacement but faces only a 71.1% advancement probability—a meaningful discount that drops him to rank 4 despite similar baseline metrics.
A brilliant pick on an eliminated team is wasted capital. Maignan's elite relative value is paired with near-certainty of continued play.
If you have a second transfer available, Mbappé is the logical follow-up. His 4.82 value over replacement and matching 92.3% advancement probability make him the second-ranked move, though his 59.2% ownership means you're buying consensus. Dayot Upamecano (3.815 value over replacement, same 92.3% advancement) offers a cheaper defensive alternative at 5.3m if you're looking to build France exposure without the forward premium.
Bottom line: Maignan is the move to make first. His 4.98 value over replacement, combined with France's 92.3% survival odds, creates the cleanest risk-adjusted edge on the board. If transfers remain, Mbappé or Upamecano extend your France exposure into a team that will almost certainly play again.
The data
| # | Player | Priority | VOR | xPts | Advance % | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Maignan FranceDifferentialSafe floor | 9.58 | 4.98 | 5.16 | 92.3% | 5.0 | 8.9% |
| 2 | Mbappé France | 9.27 | 4.82 | 6.14 | 92.3% | 10.5 | 59.2% |
| 3 | Dayot Upamecano FranceDifferentialSafe floor | 7.34 | 3.81 | 5.16 | 92.3% | 5.3 | 4.9% |
| 4 | Yassine 'Bono' Bounou MoroccoDifferentialSafe floor | 7.03 | 4.11 | 4.29 | 71.1% | 4.7 | 5.7% |
| 5 | Jules Kounde FranceDifferentialSafe floor | 6.70 | 3.48 | 4.83 | 92.3% | 5.4 | 6.3% |
| 6 | William Saliba FranceSafe floor | 6.28 | 3.27 | 4.61 | 92.3% | 5.3 | 13.0% |
| 7 | Achraf Hakimi MoroccoSafe floor | 6.13 | 3.58 | 4.93 | 71.1% | 6.0 | 28.0% |
| 8 | Unai Simon SpainDifferentialSafe floor | 5.95 | 3.61 | 3.79 | 64.9% | 5.0 | 8.5% |
| 9 | Alisson Becker BrazilDifferentialSafe floor | 5.85 | 3.51 | 3.69 | 66.7% | 5.0 | 7.4% |
| 10 | Matheus Cunha BrazilDifferential | 5.82 | 3.49 | 4.81 | 66.7% | 7.3 | 4.4% |
| 11 | Jordan Pickford EnglandSafe floorAdvance risk | 5.76 | 3.68 | 3.86 | 56.5% | 4.8 | 15.9% |
| 12 | Kane EnglandAdvance risk | 5.51 | 3.52 | 4.84 | 56.5% | 10.5 | 40.6% |
| 13 | Ismael Saibari Morocco | 5.49 | 3.21 | 5.54 | 71.1% | 6.8 | 14.9% |
| 14 | Folarin Balogun United StatesDifferentialAdvance risk | 5.13 | 3.37 | 4.69 | 52.1% | 6.0 | 3.9% |
| 15 | Thuram FranceDifferential | 4.90 | 2.55 | 3.87 | 92.3% | 7.5 | 0.4% |
| 16 | Michael Olise France | 4.87 | 2.53 | 4.86 | 92.3% | 9.5 | 34.1% |
| 17 | Oyarzabal Spain | 4.82 | 2.92 | 4.24 | 64.9% | 8.1 | 10.8% |
| 18 | E. Haaland NorwayAdvance risk | 4.73 | 3.55 | 4.87 | 33.3% | 10.5 | 28.6% |
| 19 | Chadi Riad MoroccoDifferentialSafe floor | 4.54 | 2.65 | 4.00 | 71.1% | 3.9 | 1.4% |
| 20 | Raphinha Brazil | 4.42 | 2.65 | 4.98 | 66.7% | 8.2 | 10.3% |
Bottom line
Maignan is the move to make first. His 4.98 value over replacement, combined with France's 92.3% survival odds, creates the cleanest risk-adjusted edge on the board. If transfers remain, Mbappé or Upamecano extend your France exposure into a team that will almost certainly play again.
How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/round/5/transfers.json.