{
  "competition": "fifa_world_cup_fantasy",
  "round": 5,
  "article": "transfers",
  "title": "Priority transfers this round — Round 5",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-03T13:38:41.827646+00:00",
  "sims": 50000,
  "methodology": "Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy points table.",
  "entries": [
    {
      "name": "Mike Maignan",
      "team": "France",
      "position": "GK",
      "x_points": 5.16,
      "captain_ev": 10.32,
      "ceiling": 5.16,
      "ceiling_ratio": 1.0,
      "price": 5,
      "ownership_pct": 8.9,
      "value": 1.032,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00",
      "vor": 4.98,
      "p_advance": 92.3,
      "priority_score": 9.577,
      "rank": 1
    },
    {
      "name": "Mbappé",
      "team": "France",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 6.14,
      "captain_ev": 12.29,
      "ceiling": 12.95,
      "ceiling_ratio": 2.108,
      "price": 10.5,
      "ownership_pct": 59.2,
      "value": 0.585,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00",
      "vor": 4.82,
      "p_advance": 92.3,
      "priority_score": 9.269,
      "rank": 2
    },
    {
      "name": "Dayot Upamecano",
      "team": "France",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 5.16,
      "captain_ev": 10.31,
      "ceiling": 4.74,
      "ceiling_ratio": 0.919,
      "price": 5.3,
      "ownership_pct": 4.9,
      "value": 0.973,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00",
      "vor": 3.815,
      "p_advance": 92.3,
      "priority_score": 7.336,
      "rank": 3
    },
    {
      "name": "Yassine 'Bono' Bounou",
      "team": "Morocco",
      "position": "GK",
      "x_points": 4.29,
      "captain_ev": 8.58,
      "ceiling": 4.29,
      "ceiling_ratio": 1.0,
      "price": 4.7,
      "ownership_pct": 5.7,
      "value": 0.913,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-04T17:00:00+00:00",
      "vor": 4.11,
      "p_advance": 71.1,
      "priority_score": 7.032,
      "rank": 4
    },
    {
      "name": "Jules Kounde",
      "team": "France",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 4.83,
      "captain_ev": 9.66,
      "ceiling": 4.7,
      "ceiling_ratio": 0.973,
      "price": 5.4,
      "ownership_pct": 6.3,
      "value": 0.894,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00",
      "vor": 3.485,
      "p_advance": 92.3,
      "priority_score": 6.702,
      "rank": 5
    },
    {
      "name": "William Saliba",
      "team": "France",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 4.61,
      "captain_ev": 9.21,
      "ceiling": 4.31,
      "ceiling_ratio": 0.936,
      "price": 5.3,
      "ownership_pct": 13,
      "value": 0.869,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00",
      "vor": 3.265,
      "p_advance": 92.3,
      "priority_score": 6.279,
      "rank": 6
    },
    {
      "name": "Achraf Hakimi",
      "team": "Morocco",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 4.93,
      "captain_ev": 9.86,
      "ceiling": 4.04,
      "ceiling_ratio": 0.821,
      "price": 6,
      "ownership_pct": 28,
      "value": 0.821,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-04T17:00:00+00:00",
      "vor": 3.585,
      "p_advance": 71.1,
      "priority_score": 6.134,
      "rank": 7
    },
    {
      "name": "Unai Simon",
      "team": "Spain",
      "position": "GK",
      "x_points": 3.79,
      "captain_ev": 7.58,
      "ceiling": 3.79,
      "ceiling_ratio": 1.0,
      "price": 5,
      "ownership_pct": 8.5,
      "value": 0.758,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-06T19:00:00+00:00",
      "vor": 3.61,
      "p_advance": 64.9,
      "priority_score": 5.953,
      "rank": 8
    },
    {
      "name": "Alisson Becker",
      "team": "Brazil",
      "position": "GK",
      "x_points": 3.69,
      "captain_ev": 7.38,
      "ceiling": 3.69,
      "ceiling_ratio": 1.0,
      "price": 5,
      "ownership_pct": 7.4,
      "value": 0.738,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-05T20:00:00+00:00",
      "vor": 3.51,
      "p_advance": 66.7,
      "priority_score": 5.851,
      "rank": 9
    },
    {
      "name": "Matheus Cunha",
      "team": "Brazil",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 4.81,
      "captain_ev": 9.63,
      "ceiling": 8.09,
      "ceiling_ratio": 1.682,
      "price": 7.3,
      "ownership_pct": 4.4,
      "value": 0.659,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-05T20:00:00+00:00",
      "vor": 3.49,
      "p_advance": 66.7,
      "priority_score": 5.818,
      "rank": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "Jordan Pickford",
      "team": "England",
      "position": "GK",
      "x_points": 3.86,
      "captain_ev": 7.71,
      "ceiling": 3.86,
      "ceiling_ratio": 1.0,
      "price": 4.8,
      "ownership_pct": 15.9,
      "value": 0.804,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-06T00:00:00+00:00",
      "vor": 3.68,
      "p_advance": 56.5,
      "priority_score": 5.759,
      "rank": 11
    },
    {
      "name": "Kane",
      "team": "England",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 4.84,
      "captain_ev": 9.68,
      "ceiling": 7.73,
      "ceiling_ratio": 1.598,
      "price": 10.5,
      "ownership_pct": 40.6,
      "value": 0.461,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-06T00:00:00+00:00",
      "vor": 3.52,
      "p_advance": 56.5,
      "priority_score": 5.509,
      "rank": 12
    },
    {
      "name": "Ismael Saibari",
      "team": "Morocco",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 5.54,
      "captain_ev": 11.08,
      "ceiling": 9.06,
      "ceiling_ratio": 1.635,
      "price": 6.8,
      "ownership_pct": 14.9,
      "value": 0.815,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-04T17:00:00+00:00",
      "vor": 3.21,
      "p_advance": 71.1,
      "priority_score": 5.492,
      "rank": 13
    },
    {
      "name": "Folarin Balogun",
      "team": "United States",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 4.69,
      "captain_ev": 9.38,
      "ceiling": 8.22,
      "ceiling_ratio": 1.754,
      "price": 6,
      "ownership_pct": 3.9,
      "value": 0.781,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-07T00:00:00+00:00",
      "vor": 3.37,
      "p_advance": 52.1,
      "priority_score": 5.126,
      "rank": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "Thuram",
      "team": "France",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 3.87,
      "captain_ev": 7.74,
      "ceiling": 7.61,
      "ceiling_ratio": 1.965,
      "price": 7.5,
      "ownership_pct": 0.4,
      "value": 0.516,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00",
      "vor": 2.55,
      "p_advance": 92.3,
      "priority_score": 4.904,
      "rank": 15
    },
    {
      "name": "Michael Olise",
      "team": "France",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.86,
      "captain_ev": 9.72,
      "ceiling": 7.9,
      "ceiling_ratio": 1.625,
      "price": 9.5,
      "ownership_pct": 34.1,
      "value": 0.512,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00",
      "vor": 2.53,
      "p_advance": 92.3,
      "priority_score": 4.865,
      "rank": 16
    },
    {
      "name": "Oyarzabal",
      "team": "Spain",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 4.24,
      "captain_ev": 8.48,
      "ceiling": 7.52,
      "ceiling_ratio": 1.775,
      "price": 8.1,
      "ownership_pct": 10.8,
      "value": 0.523,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-06T19:00:00+00:00",
      "vor": 2.92,
      "p_advance": 64.9,
      "priority_score": 4.815,
      "rank": 17
    },
    {
      "name": "E. Haaland",
      "team": "Norway",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 4.87,
      "captain_ev": 9.75,
      "ceiling": 7.62,
      "ceiling_ratio": 1.563,
      "price": 10.5,
      "ownership_pct": 28.6,
      "value": 0.464,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-05T20:00:00+00:00",
      "vor": 3.55,
      "p_advance": 33.3,
      "priority_score": 4.732,
      "rank": 18
    },
    {
      "name": "Chadi Riad",
      "team": "Morocco",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 4.0,
      "captain_ev": 8.0,
      "ceiling": 3.84,
      "ceiling_ratio": 0.959,
      "price": 3.9,
      "ownership_pct": 1.4,
      "value": 1.026,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-04T17:00:00+00:00",
      "vor": 2.655,
      "p_advance": 71.1,
      "priority_score": 4.543,
      "rank": 19
    },
    {
      "name": "Raphinha",
      "team": "Brazil",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.98,
      "captain_ev": 9.96,
      "ceiling": 9.5,
      "ceiling_ratio": 1.907,
      "price": 8.2,
      "ownership_pct": 10.3,
      "value": 0.607,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-05T20:00:00+00:00",
      "vor": 2.65,
      "p_advance": 66.7,
      "priority_score": 4.418,
      "rank": 20
    }
  ],
  "source": "https://evmax.ai",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "license_text": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with attribution to evmax (https://evmax.ai)"
}