Chadi Riad offers elite efficiency at bargain price
Morocco's defender ranks second in value with 1.026 points per million and minimal ownership.
Chadi Riad is the second-ranked pick in Round 5, trailing only Mike Maignan in overall priority. The Morocco defender carries an xPts of 4.0 with a captain EV of 8.0, priced at just 3.9m. His 1.026 points per million ranks him among the most efficient assets available, yet he sits at only 1.4% ownership—a significant gap between model conviction and market perception.
The ceiling_ratio of 0.959 reflects a safe floor with no big-haul upside, which is typical for defensive assets. What separates Riad is the combination of reasonable scoring expectation and exceptional price efficiency. Compare him to Dayot Upamecano, who offers 5.16 xPts but costs 5.3m for a value of 0.973 points per million, or Jules Kounde at 5.4m with 0.894 points per million. Riad delivers similar defensive stability at a 1.4m discount to Upamecano.
At 3.9m with 1.4% ownership, Riad represents the kind of contrarian value that compounds across a squad.
Morocco's defensive profile in this matchup supports the model's conviction. While Achraf Hakimi dominates ownership at 28%, his 0.821 points per million reveals the ownership tax. Riad and Noussair Mazraoui (3.6% owned, 0.808 value) offer the same defensive ceiling at substantially lower cost and lower crowding.
Bottom line: Riad is a must-own at 3.9m for any squad seeking efficiency over narrative. His 1.026 points per million and sub-2% ownership make him the clearest value play in the defender pool.
The data
| # | Player | Pts/m | xPts | Price | Captain EV | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Maignan FranceDifferentialSafe floor | 1.03 | 5.16 | 5.0 | 10.32 | 8.9% |
| 2 | Chadi Riad MoroccoDifferentialSafe floor | 1.03 | 4.00 | 3.9 | 8.00 | 1.4% |
| 3 | Dayot Upamecano FranceDifferentialSafe floor | 0.97 | 5.16 | 5.3 | 10.31 | 4.9% |
| 4 | Yassine 'Bono' Bounou MoroccoDifferentialSafe floor | 0.91 | 4.29 | 4.7 | 8.58 | 5.7% |
| 5 | Jules Kounde FranceDifferentialSafe floor | 0.89 | 4.83 | 5.4 | 9.66 | 6.3% |
| 6 | William Saliba FranceSafe floor | 0.87 | 4.61 | 5.3 | 9.21 | 13.0% |
| 7 | Achraf Hakimi MoroccoSafe floor | 0.82 | 4.93 | 6.0 | 9.86 | 28.0% |
| 8 | Ismael Saibari Morocco | 0.81 | 5.54 | 6.8 | 11.08 | 14.9% |
| 9 | Noussair Mazraoui MoroccoDifferentialSafe floor | 0.81 | 3.56 | 4.4 | 7.11 | 3.6% |
| 10 | Jordan Pickford EnglandSafe floor | 0.80 | 3.86 | 4.8 | 7.71 | 15.9% |
| 11 | Folarin Balogun United StatesDifferential | 0.78 | 4.69 | 6.0 | 9.38 | 3.9% |
| 12 | Rangel MexicoDifferentialSafe floor | 0.78 | 3.04 | 3.9 | 6.08 | 6.7% |
| 13 | Unai Simon SpainDifferentialSafe floor | 0.76 | 3.79 | 5.0 | 7.58 | 8.5% |
| 14 | Maxime Crepeau CanadaDifferentialSafe floor | 0.75 | 3.02 | 4.0 | 6.03 | 3.7% |
| 15 | Alisson Becker BrazilDifferentialSafe floor | 0.74 | 3.69 | 5.0 | 7.38 | 7.4% |
| 16 | Douglas Santos BrazilDifferentialSafe floor | 0.74 | 3.17 | 4.3 | 6.35 | 2.4% |
| 17 | Giovanni Reyna United StatesDifferential | 0.71 | 3.92 | 5.5 | 7.85 | 0.4% |
| 18 | Matt Freese United StatesDifferentialSafe floor | 0.70 | 2.92 | 4.2 | 5.84 | 2.0% |
| 19 | Neil El Aynaoui MoroccoDifferentialSafe floor | 0.69 | 3.85 | 5.6 | 7.70 | 0.1% |
| 20 | Ezri Konsa EnglandDifferentialSafe floor | 0.68 | 3.25 | 4.8 | 6.50 | 3.0% |
Bottom line
Riad is a must-own at 3.9m for any squad seeking efficiency over narrative. His 1.026 points per million and sub-2% ownership make him the clearest value play in the defender pool.
How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/round/5/efficiency.json.