Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier A · BudgetEVE

Armstrong

MID · £5.0m · Gameweek 7
2.95xPts0.59pts/£m
floor 1 · ceiling 6
3223.02.52.93.2
GW4 3 points played · GW5 2 points played · GW6 2 points played · GW7 3.0 projected · GW8 2.5 projected · GW9 2.9 projected · GW10 3.2 projected
GW45678910
CHEARSNEWCOV
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank109thcaptain EV5.89owned0.4%season18 ptspts/£m so far3.60
attack 2.4clean sheet 0.2defence 0.2bonus 0.1= 3.0 xPts
floor 1most likely 2 49%ceiling 6
10,000 simulations: floor 1, most likely 2 (49% of simulations), ceiling 6 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)2.95
Captain EV5.89
Top 15% of sims, average7.62
Projected pts/£m0.590
Expected bonus (per match)0.13
DefCon points (per match)0.22
P(DefCon threshold)0.109
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.21
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.99
Price£5.0m
Ownership0.4%
xPts rank / ownership rank109 / 258
Season points (minutes)18 (523′)
Realized pts/£m3.60
Model tierA · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/244.json.