Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier A · MidEVE

Branthwaite

DEF · £5.5m · Gameweek 7
3.24xPts0.59pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 8
6833.22.63.33.8
GW4 6 points played · GW5 8 points played · GW6 3 points played · GW7 3.2 projected · GW8 2.6 projected · GW9 3.3 projected · GW10 3.8 projected
GW45678910
CHEARSNEWCOV
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank86thcaptain EV6.48owned2.6%season30 ptspts/£m so far5.45
attack 1.5clean sheet 0.8defence 0.8bonus 0.1= 3.2 xPts
floor 0most likely 1 21%ceiling 8
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 1 (21% of simulations), ceiling 8 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)3.24
Captain EV6.48
Top 15% of sims, average8.39
Projected pts/£m0.589
Expected bonus (per match)0.09
DefCon points (per match)0.82
P(DefCon threshold)0.410
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.82
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.99
Price£5.5m
Ownership2.6%
xPts rank / ownership rank86 / 108
Season points (minutes)30 (540′)
Realized pts/£m5.45
Model tierA · Mid
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/230.json.