Raphinha offers elite value in Round 5 blowouts
Brazil's midfielder ranks second in captain EV with 10.3% ownership—a contrarian edge in a crowded field.
Raphinha sits at the heart of Round 5's value puzzle. The Brazil midfielder carries 4.98 xPts and a captain EV of 9.96, ranking him second overall behind only Mbappé (12.29 captain EV). Yet his ownership stands at just 10.3%, making him a genuine contrarian play in a tournament where Mbappé dominates at 59.2% and even Vinicius Jr commands 34.5%.
The efficiency case is compelling. Raphinha's 0.607 points per million is the highest among elite-tier options, outpacing Mbappé (0.585) and Vinicius Jr (0.487). At 8.2m, he offers a meaningful discount to Vinicius Jr (10.0m) while delivering nearly identical expected output. His ceiling of 9.5 reflects a 1.907 ceiling ratio—solid upside without the volatility of lower-owned punts.
Raphinha's 10.3% ownership is the real story here. He's the second-best captain option by EV but priced like a mid-tier play.
Brazil's knockout matchup on 2026-07-05T20:00:00+00:00 carries no advancement risk in this dataset, and Raphinha's role in their attacking structure is established. The gap between his captain EV ranking (rank 2) and ownership penetration is where the edge lives—most managers are sleeping on him in favour of higher-priced alternatives or France's concentrated pool.
Bottom line: Raphinha is the highest-value captain option relative to ownership. Transfer him in and consider the armband if you're fading Mbappé.
The data
| # | Player | xPts | Captain EV | Ceiling | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mbappé France | 6.14 | 12.29 | 12.95 | 10.5 | 59.2% |
| 2 | Raphinha Brazil | 4.98 | 9.96 | 9.50 | 8.2 | 10.3% |
| 3 | Vinicius Jr Brazil | 4.87 | 9.74 | 7.73 | 10.0 | 34.5% |
| 4 | E. Haaland Norway | 4.87 | 9.75 | 7.62 | 10.5 | 28.6% |
| 5 | Michael Olise France | 4.86 | 9.72 | 7.90 | 9.5 | 34.1% |
| 6 | Matheus Cunha BrazilDifferential | 4.81 | 9.63 | 8.09 | 7.3 | 4.4% |
| 7 | Ousmane Dembele France | 4.49 | 8.98 | 9.56 | 10.0 | 22.9% |
| 8 | Bradley Barcola FranceDifferential | 4.42 | 8.84 | 8.48 | 8.0 | 1.5% |
| 9 | M. Ødegaard NorwayDifferentialSafe floor | 3.93 | 7.87 | 3.32 | 7.7 | 3.9% |
| 10 | Thuram FranceDifferential | 3.87 | 7.74 | 7.61 | 7.5 | 0.4% |
| 11 | Lucas Paqueta BrazilDifferentialSafe floor | 3.71 | 7.42 | 3.38 | 6.5 | 0.9% |
| 12 | Bruno Guimaraes BrazilDifferentialSafe floor | 3.69 | 7.38 | 3.42 | 6.8 | 4.0% |
| 13 | Casemiro BrazilDifferentialSafe floor | 3.52 | 7.03 | 3.25 | 6.3 | 1.6% |
| 14 | Adrien Rabiot FranceDifferential | 3.50 | 7.01 | 8.63 | 6.4 | 0.5% |
| 15 | Julio Enciso ParaguayDifferentialSafe floor | 3.48 | 6.97 | 3.23 | 6.6 | 0.4% |
| 16 | Doué FranceDifferentialSafe floor | 3.33 | 6.67 | 2.66 | 7.5 | 3.1% |
| 17 | Fredrik Aursnes NorwayDifferentialSafe floor | 3.28 | 6.56 | 3.07 | 6.5 | 0.1% |
| 18 | Diego Gomez ParaguayDifferentialSafe floor | 3.16 | 6.33 | 2.99 | 6.8 | 0.2% |
| 19 | Andres Cubas ParaguayDifferentialSafe floor | 3.11 | 6.22 | 2.96 | 4.7 | 0.0% |
| 20 | Antonio Nusa NorwayDifferentialSafe floor | 3.10 | 6.20 | 2.64 | 6.1 | 1.8% |
Bottom line
Raphinha is the highest-value captain option relative to ownership. Transfer him in and consider the armband if you're fading Mbappé.
How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/round/5/blowout-transfers.json.