Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier S · MidARS

Calafiori

DEF · £5.9m · Gameweek 7
4.61xPts0.78pts/£m
floor 1 · ceiling 8
6194.65.04.04.4
GW4 6 points played · GW5 1 points played · GW6 9 points played · GW7 4.6 projected · GW8 5.0 projected · GW9 4.0 projected · GW10 4.4 projected
GW45678910
NFOEVELIVHUL
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank19thcaptain EV9.21owned52.3%season38 ptspts/£m so far6.44
attack 2.6clean sheet 1.8defence 0.0bonus 0.2= 4.6 xPts
floor 1most likely 6 30%ceiling 8
10,000 simulations: floor 1, most likely 6 (30% of simulations), ceiling 8 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
the consensus squad owns him, we do not
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)4.61
Captain EV9.21
Top 15% of sims, average11.49
Projected pts/£m0.781
Expected bonus (per match)0.20
DefCon points (per match)0.04
P(DefCon threshold)0.021
Clean-sheet points (per match)1.77
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.99
Price£5.9m
Ownership52.3%
xPts rank / ownership rank19 / 3
Season points (minutes)38 (497′)
Realized pts/£m6.44
Model tierS · Mid
Our positionthe consensus squad owns him, we do not

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

Research notes on file: Calafiori. Notes carry sourced minutes/rotation judgement that overrides the raw model.

Currently in the XI of the consensus squad.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/8.json.