Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · MidAVL

Goretzka

MID · £5.9m · Gameweek 7

Official FPL feed at forecast capture: Knee injury - 75% chance of playing (status: d)

Model start prior (before lineup constraints): 0.19. The FPL percentage concerns playing. The model start prior is a separate estimate.

0.66xPts0.11pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 2
0.70.60.70.70.7
GW7 0.7 projected · GW8 0.6 projected · GW9 0.7 projected · GW10 0.7 projected · GW11 0.7 projected
GW7891011
NEWMCIFULMUNSUN
projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank307thcaptain EV1.31owned0.0%season0 pts
attack 0.5clean sheet 0.0bonus 0.1= 0.7 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 71%ceiling 2
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (71% of simulations), ceiling 2 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)0.66
Captain EV1.31
Top 15% of sims, average3.53
Projected pts/£m0.112
Expected bonus (per match)0.09
DefCon points (per match)0.00
P(DefCon threshold)0.000
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.03
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.19
Price£5.9m
Ownership0.0%
xPts rank / ownership rank307 / 563
Season points (minutes)0 (0′)
Realized pts/£m0.00
Model tierB · Mid
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/618.json.