Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · BudgetCHE

Chavarria

DEF · £4.9m · Gameweek 7
1.61xPts0.33pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 6
1151.61.71.61.6
GW4 1 points played · GW5 1 points played · GW6 5 points played · GW7 1.6 projected · GW8 1.7 projected · GW9 1.6 projected · GW10 1.6 projected
GW45678910
EVETOTMUNSUN
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank217thcaptain EV3.22owned0.2%season10 ptspts/£m so far2.04
attack 0.8clean sheet 0.5defence 0.1bonus 0.1= 1.6 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 48%ceiling 6
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (48% of simulations), ceiling 6 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)1.61
Captain EV3.22
Top 15% of sims, average6.91
Projected pts/£m0.329
Expected bonus (per match)0.13
DefCon points (per match)0.13
P(DefCon threshold)0.066
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.51
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.49
Price£4.9m
Ownership0.2%
xPts rank / ownership rank217 / 324
Season points (minutes)10 (298′)
Realized pts/£m2.04
Model tierB · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/583.json.