Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · BudgetFUL

César Palacios

MID · £5.4m · Gameweek 7
1.32xPts0.24pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 3
1811.31.21.21.2
GW2 1 points played · GW3 8 points played · GW5 1 points played · GW7 1.3 projected · GW8 1.2 projected · GW9 1.2 projected · GW10 1.2 projected
GW23578910
HULCOVAVLNEW
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank236thcaptain EV2.64owned0.2%season12 ptspts/£m so far2.22
attack 1.0clean sheet 0.1defence 0.0bonus 0.2= 1.3 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 57%ceiling 3
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (57% of simulations), ceiling 3 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)1.32
Captain EV2.64
Top 15% of sims, average6.07
Projected pts/£m0.244
Expected bonus (per match)0.20
DefCon points (per match)0.02
P(DefCon threshold)0.008
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.12
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.33
Price£5.4m
Ownership0.2%
xPts rank / ownership rank236 / 328
Season points (minutes)12 (226′)
Realized pts/£m2.22
Model tierB · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/570.json.