Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · MidTOT

Fernandes

MID · £5.7m · Gameweek 7
1.84xPts0.32pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 5
3111.81.51.61.6
GW4 3 points played · GW5 1 points played · GW6 1 points played · GW7 1.8 projected · GW8 1.5 projected · GW9 1.6 projected · GW10 1.6 projected
GW45678910
COVCHECRYLEE
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank194thcaptain EV3.68owned0.7%season8 ptspts/£m so far1.40
attack 1.4clean sheet 0.2defence 0.1bonus 0.1= 1.8 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 43%ceiling 5
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (43% of simulations), ceiling 5 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)1.84
Captain EV3.68
Top 15% of sims, average6.64
Projected pts/£m0.323
Expected bonus (per match)0.15
DefCon points (per match)0.08
P(DefCon threshold)0.038
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.19
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.51
Price£5.7m
Ownership0.7%
xPts rank / ownership rank194 / 212
Season points (minutes)8 (250′)
Realized pts/£m1.40
Model tierB · Mid
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/525.json.