Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · MidARS

J.Timber

DEF · £6.5m · Gameweek 7
1.27xPts0.20pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 6
1011.31.31.11.2
GW4 1 points played · GW5 0 points played · GW6 1 points played · GW7 1.3 projected · GW8 1.3 projected · GW9 1.1 projected · GW10 1.2 projected
GW45678910
NFOEVELIVHUL
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank239thcaptain EV2.54owned0.6%season2 ptspts/£m so far0.31
attack 0.7clean sheet 0.4defence 0.1bonus 0.1= 1.3 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 63%ceiling 6
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (63% of simulations), ceiling 6 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)1.27
Captain EV2.54
Top 15% of sims, average6.79
Projected pts/£m0.195
Expected bonus (per match)0.10
DefCon points (per match)0.05
P(DefCon threshold)0.023
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.40
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.23
Price£6.5m
Ownership0.6%
xPts rank / ownership rank239 / 227
Season points (minutes)2 (131′)
Realized pts/£m0.31
Model tierB · Mid
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/5.json.