Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier A · MidNFO
Murillo
2.99xPts0.54pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 7
6423.03.93.53.3
GW45678910
ARSIPSBREMCI
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank104thcaptain EV5.98owned2.1%season25 ptspts/£m so far4.55
attack 1.4clean sheet 0.7defence 0.8bonus 0.2= 3.0 xPts
floor 0most likely 1 23%ceiling 7
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
The data
| Metric | Gameweek 7 |
|---|---|
| Expected points (xPts) | 2.99 |
| Captain EV | 5.98 |
| Top 15% of sims, average | 8.49 |
| Projected pts/£m | 0.544 |
| Expected bonus (per match) | 0.18 |
| DefCon points (per match) | 0.77 |
| P(DefCon threshold) | 0.383 |
| Clean-sheet points (per match) | 0.68 |
| Start prior (before lineup constraints) | 0.99 |
| Price | £5.5m |
| Ownership | 2.1% |
| xPts rank / ownership rank | 104 / 123 |
| Season points (minutes) | 25 (539′) |
| Realized pts/£m | 4.55 |
| Model tier | A · Mid |
| Our position | we do not own him |
The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.
No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.
How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/472.json.