Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · MidNEW

J.Murphy

MID · £5.9m · Gameweek 7
2.28xPts0.39pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 6
0112.32.22.32.1
GW4 0 points played · GW5 1 points played · GW6 1 points played · GW7 2.3 projected · GW8 2.2 projected · GW9 2.3 projected · GW10 2.1 projected
GW45678910
AVLCRYEVEFUL
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank164thcaptain EV4.55owned0.1%season4 ptspts/£m so far0.68
attack 1.9clean sheet 0.2defence 0.1bonus 0.2= 2.3 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 33%ceiling 6
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (33% of simulations), ceiling 6 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)2.28
Captain EV4.55
Top 15% of sims, average7.83
Projected pts/£m0.386
Expected bonus (per match)0.18
DefCon points (per match)0.07
P(DefCon threshold)0.036
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.16
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.66
Price£5.9m
Ownership0.1%
xPts rank / ownership rank164 / 430
Season points (minutes)4 (239′)
Realized pts/£m0.68
Model tierB · Mid
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/457.json.