Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier A · BudgetNEW

Thiaw

DEF · £5.0m · Gameweek 7
3.48xPts0.70pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 8
2403.53.53.73.2
GW4 2 points played · GW5 4 points played · GW6 0 points played · GW7 3.5 projected · GW8 3.5 projected · GW9 3.7 projected · GW10 3.2 projected
GW45678910
AVLCRYEVEFUL
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank72ndcaptain EV6.95owned2.1%season14 ptspts/£m so far2.80
attack 1.9clean sheet 0.9defence 0.5bonus 0.1= 3.5 xPts
floor 0most likely 1 21%ceiling 8
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 1 (21% of simulations), ceiling 8 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)3.48
Captain EV6.95
Top 15% of sims, average9.37
Projected pts/£m0.696
Expected bonus (per match)0.11
DefCon points (per match)0.53
P(DefCon threshold)0.264
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.95
Start prior (before lineup constraints)1.00
Price£5.0m
Ownership2.1%
xPts rank / ownership rank72 / 124
Season points (minutes)14 (540′)
Realized pts/£m2.80
Model tierA · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/445.json.