Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier A · MidCHE

Rogers

MID · £7.9m · Gameweek 7
3.83xPts0.48pts/£m
floor 1 · ceiling 9
8293.83.83.73.7
GW4 8 points played · GW5 2 points played · GW6 9 points played · GW7 3.8 projected · GW8 3.8 projected · GW9 3.7 projected · GW10 3.7 projected
GW45678910
EVETOTMUNSUN
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank46thcaptain EV7.67owned45.0%season38 ptspts/£m so far4.81
attack 3.1clean sheet 0.3defence 0.1bonus 0.3= 3.8 xPts
floor 1most likely 2 39%ceiling 9
10,000 simulations: floor 1, most likely 2 (39% of simulations), ceiling 9 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
the consensus squad owns him, we do not
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)3.83
Captain EV7.67
Top 15% of sims, average10.45
Projected pts/£m0.485
Expected bonus (per match)0.34
DefCon points (per match)0.14
P(DefCon threshold)0.068
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.28
Start prior (before lineup constraints)1.00
Price£7.9m
Ownership45.0%
xPts rank / ownership rank46 / 4
Season points (minutes)38 (520′)
Realized pts/£m4.81
Model tierA · Mid
Our positionthe consensus squad owns him, we do not

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

Research notes on file: Rogers. Notes carry sourced minutes/rotation judgement that overrides the raw model.

Currently in the XI of the consensus squad.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/40.json.