Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier C · BudgetMCI

Lewis

DEF · £4.3m · Gameweek 7
0.57xPts0.13pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 1
10.60.50.50.50.5
GW1 1 points played · GW7 0.6 projected · GW8 0.5 projected · GW9 0.5 projected · GW10 0.5 projected · GW11 0.5 projected
GW17891011
IPSAVLBHANFOFUL
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank319thcaptain EV1.14owned0.2%season1 pts
attack 0.4clean sheet 0.1defence 0.0bonus 0.0= 0.6 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 76%ceiling 1
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (76% of simulations), ceiling 1 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)0.57
Captain EV1.14
Top 15% of sims, average3.29
Projected pts/£m0.133
Expected bonus (per match)0.04
DefCon points (per match)0.02
P(DefCon threshold)0.011
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.14
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.09
Price£4.3m
Ownership0.2%
xPts rank / ownership rank319 / 346
Season points (minutes)1 (56′)
Realized pts/£m0.23
Model tierC · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/395.json.