Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier A · BudgetAVL

Lindelöf

DEF · £4.5m · Gameweek 7
2.67xPts0.59pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 6
1132.72.12.82.6
GW4 1 points played · GW5 1 points played · GW6 3 points played · GW7 2.7 projected · GW8 2.1 projected · GW9 2.8 projected · GW10 2.6 projected
GW45678910
NEWMCIFULMUN
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank129thcaptain EV5.34owned0.3%season11 ptspts/£m so far2.44
attack 1.6clean sheet 0.8defence 0.2bonus 0.1= 2.7 xPts
floor 0most likely 1 31%ceiling 6
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 1 (31% of simulations), ceiling 6 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)2.67
Captain EV5.34
Top 15% of sims, average7.48
Projected pts/£m0.593
Expected bonus (per match)0.08
DefCon points (per match)0.18
P(DefCon threshold)0.089
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.84
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.99
Price£4.5m
Ownership0.3%
xPts rank / ownership rank129 / 296
Season points (minutes)11 (540′)
Realized pts/£m2.44
Model tierA · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/37.json.