Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier A · MidLIV

Virgil

DEF · £6.5m · Gameweek 7
3.67xPts0.56pts/£m
floor 1 · ceiling 8
8803.73.83.54.0
GW4 8 points played · GW5 8 points played · GW6 0 points played · GW7 3.7 projected · GW8 3.8 projected · GW9 3.5 projected · GW10 4.0 projected
GW45678910
BREBHAARSCRY
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank59thcaptain EV7.34owned15.8%season25 ptspts/£m so far3.85
attack 2.1clean sheet 0.9defence 0.6bonus 0.2= 3.7 xPts
floor 1most likely 1 23%ceiling 8
10,000 simulations: floor 1, most likely 1 (23% of simulations), ceiling 8 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we own him, in our XI
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)3.67
Captain EV7.34
Top 15% of sims, average9.87
Projected pts/£m0.565
Expected bonus (per match)0.20
DefCon points (per match)0.55
P(DefCon threshold)0.274
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.86
Start prior (before lineup constraints)1.00
Price£6.5m
Ownership15.8%
xPts rank / ownership rank59 / 25
Season points (minutes)25 (540′)
Realized pts/£m3.85
Model tierA · Mid
Our positionwe own him, in our XI

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

Research notes on file: Virgil. Notes carry sourced minutes/rotation judgement that overrides the raw model.

Currently in the XI of our squad.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/356.json.