Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · BudgetIPS

Davis

DEF · £4.0m · Gameweek 7
1.70xPts0.42pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 6
14211.73.33.53.3
GW4 14 points played · GW5 2 points played · GW6 1 points played · GW7 1.7 projected · GW8 3.3 projected · GW9 3.5 projected · GW10 3.3 projected
GW45678910
MCINFOHULBOU
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank206thcaptain EV3.41owned7.7%season26 ptspts/£m so far6.50
attack 1.3clean sheet 0.3defence 0.1bonus 0.0= 1.7 xPts
floor 0most likely 1 33%ceiling 6
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 1 (33% of simulations), ceiling 6 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)1.70
Captain EV3.41
Top 15% of sims, average7.02
Projected pts/£m0.425
Expected bonus (per match)0.04
DefCon points (per match)0.09
P(DefCon threshold)0.044
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.27
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.99
Price£4.0m
Ownership7.7%
xPts rank / ownership rank206 / 45
Season points (minutes)26 (540′)
Realized pts/£m6.50
Model tierB · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/305.json.