Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier A · MidHUL

McBurnie

FWD · £5.5m · Gameweek 7
3.61xPts0.66pts/£m
floor 1 · ceiling 9
4113.64.14.53.5
GW4 4 points played · GW5 1 points played · GW6 1 points played · GW7 3.6 projected · GW8 4.1 projected · GW9 4.5 projected · GW10 3.5 projected
GW45678910
FULBREIPSARS
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank64thcaptain EV7.22owned1.8%season14 ptspts/£m so far2.55
attack 2.9bonus 0.7= 3.6 xPts
floor 1most likely 2 52%ceiling 9
10,000 simulations: floor 1, most likely 2 (52% of simulations), ceiling 9 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)3.61
Captain EV7.22
Top 15% of sims, average10.30
Projected pts/£m0.656
Expected bonus (per match)0.71
DefCon points (per match)0.00
P(DefCon threshold)0.002
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.00
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.99
Price£5.5m
Ownership1.8%
xPts rank / ownership rank64 / 130
Season points (minutes)14 (531′)
Realized pts/£m2.55
Model tierA · Mid
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/295.json.